Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTAiUnits S&P/TSX Capped Materials IndexXMA.TODON'T BUYNov 18, 2013

We would be fully comfortable with XMA for general materials exposure. In terms of timing, we would see this as a 'portfolio' decision for structure rather than a 'perfect timing maximize profit' decision. 
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Sector ETF with good proximity and inflation strategy. Good for getting exposure to commodities. Overall, a good product. Good product to have in portfolio. Provides balance. 

(A Top Pick Dec 16/16. Up 3.75%.) This was just a trade, and he ended up selling it in March because of a rally in gold. The next big thing is fertilizer stocks, which you might as well just buy directly.

This has had a big move up and has come way off. It is about 45% gold. He also thinks there will be a fair amount of M&A activity that will occur in that space. He also likes the chemical/fertilizer business. There is also a little bit of base metals.

Thinks this is going to go down. So much of the weighting in the materials is gold, which has been in a downward trend for the last week or so. A rate hike is very good for the US$, which kind of throws the gold thesis under the bus.

This is phenomenal. It is in an upward trend. Momentum is positive and it is above its 20 day moving average. The outlook for gold is very positive until the end of September. It is an opportunity to hold the stock.

(A Top Pick March 24/16. Up 20.42%.) This is due for a pullback now, but thinks it will go on for a while. If you are not in this, you might want to wait a week or 2 before committing.

Components he is interested in for this final wave through this year and parts of next year: Gold miners, metal minors, agri. He feels it will be an outperformer and a place to be for the next year. We had our ABC correction. Pick this one rather than stock pick.

(Top Pick Aug 6/15, Down 2.79%) He thinks they bottomed and are rallying back now. We need $9.75 to clear the low and confirm the uptrend. It has all the hard assets he favours. He thinks it is a little early, but he would stay with it now.

If you try stock picking you will pick the wrong one when the sector turns. Just go with an ETF. We are building a base right here. It was up today. The divergence from the TSX performance chart is too wide. This one will probably rebound. Step into it now.

(A Top Pick Aug 20/13. Up 7.78%.) You get 4 nice things in this grouping. Gold producers, base metals, forestry and potash. If you get all 4 going, it works out fairly well. Chart is definitely showing an uptrend. If you own, stay with it.

(A Top Pick July 4/13. Up 20.95%.) Not as globally diversified as some other ETF’s.

(A Top Pick Aug 2013. Up 2.8%.) The 1 year chart shows a series of higher lows. It is currently trying to take out another peak. This consists of base metals, gold miners, potash and forest stocks. He thinks they are all charging ahead. Still likes, and if you own, continue to Hold.

(A Top Pick Aug 20/13. Down 0.61%.) He was in too early. A keeper though because when you look at the rotation, we have the back end of the market starting to come on.

70% of this is gold stocks but also holds other things such as fertilizers, base metals, etc. Generally it follows the overall pattern of seasonality where the sector tends to do very well from around the end of December right through until March of each year. It’s off for a good move this year. Has recently gone above a resistance level and the next resistance is at around $18.40.