Opinions
Brooke Thackray
Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund
XLK-N
PAST TOP PICK
Dec 19, 2017
Stock price when the opinion was issued
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The tech sector is trading at 28x forward PE, back to the pre-Covid peak. Tech trades at a 45% premium to the overall market while the 10-year average is 9% premium. During the tech bubble it was a 53% premium. He gets the AI enthusiasm, but doesn't understand the tech disconnect from higher rates. The Fed has said it will increase rates. Tech stocks are expensive. Tech outflows have been the highest in the past 10 weeks. We'll test 4,200 on the S&P and could run further if it breaks above that. If it doesn't, we'll see.
Sector is performing well. Small pullback from October to November, which is good as it sets up a rally. Tech starts to perform well at this time of year into January, seeing some momentum, can do well for the next few months. Rising bottoms, a very positive pattern. Breaking out from the previous level. That all shows an ascending triangle.
This week, the market nearly broke below all key support levels, including the XLK (tech index). It looks very negative now, showing a sell signal. Inskip fears XLK could fall to $225, the next floor of support and the 26-week moving average. Bearish.
(A Top Pick Oct 27/17 Up 4%.) Has done very well in 2017. We saw a correction take place back in November and that actually happens on a fairly regular basis. They exited the sector and then recently came back into it. They are looking to stay in this sector until at least the end of mid-January, if the markets corrects, he would consider exiting, but we are in a seasonal strength period for technology from October 10th until January 17th. Companies tends to spend more of their budget on technology at this time of the year driving the sector up.