iShares S&P/TSX Global Gold Index ETF (XGD.TO)

An ETF of the producers. GOLD has had a lid of $1560 or so. This ETF has been flat like the commodity for some time. There is a seasonal time for it over the next two to three months, so continue to hold it during this time in case of a break out.

He was one of the first shareholders of this in 2003, but hasn't held it for a while. There are better safe havens like the Chinese renminbi or Chinese bonds. Gold has fallen out of favour and trending sideways, if not down. He's neutral on gold, though watching it.

(A Top Pick Aug 25/17. Down 1.69%.) If you own this, you are going into a period of seasonal strength and should stick with it and buy more.

(A Top Pick Aug 4/17. Up 3%.) Had recommended this in August because gold was usually positive to around the end of September, has a period of weakness, and then in the middle of December goes into the next period of seasonal strength, when it goes higher through to the end of February. Technically, the TSX Gold Index has been forming a nice base pattern, and some individual stocks are starting to break out on the upside, even before we had a period of seasonal strength. If you own this, stick with it, and buy some more in the next couple of weeks.

Check his [email protected] for "make it or break it" which covered gold extensively. The gist is that gold has a seasonality, which ended about a month ago. Gold needed to bust $1350. It didn't. For the time being he wouldn't touch gold as it is not acting bullishly and you are out of the favourable season. Wait to see if it runs through $1350 before looking at it. It is stuck in a consolidation pattern and has been for some time.

(A Top Pick Aug 4/17, Up 2%) It had a good run until about two weeks ago. You may want to take this position off.

Held this for a short time, but just sold today. Gold has always functioned as a traditional safe haven. Central Banks have almost usurped the role of gold as a crisis management hedge. He’ll buy this one on and off.

(A Top Pick Aug 25/17. Down 1%.) This year started off great, but then started to roll over. Has a little concern with gold and gold equities in general. The US$ Index in the last 10 days has started to show signs of bottoming. If the US$ starts to bottom and go higher, that is not good for gold and gold stocks.

This was a Top Pick 2 weeks ago. Historically, gold and gold stocks have a period of seasonal strength from about the last week in July, right through until approximately the 1^st week in October. The stock has been in an upward trend over the last couple of weeks. If it gets above the $14.50 level, there is still time for the period of seasonal strength to come fully into the stock.

Producers of commodities sometimes lag or move ahead of the commodity. The market is trying to look ahead at their profits, based on what they think the commodity might do, which is why they don’t always move together. The chart shows that this is consolidating, but it is in a slight downward tilt. His personal way to play gold right now would be with bullion.

It is starting to fit nicely this year. This is gold Equities. It is forming a nice little base and starting to go higher. This is in Canadian dollars, which is important.

She generally doesn’t buy ETF’s and would normally buy individual gold producers. This one picked up, on North Korea’s and US relations. Typically, if there is increased uncertainty and volatility, that is usually good for gold. Also, if the US$ is weakening, that is good for gold. She has a very low weighting of gold in her clients’ portfolios. Inflation is very benign globally. This is not the environment right now to be heavily into gold.

Gold and gold stocks have seasonality from about the 3^rd week in July until the end of September. Gold bullion has already come up quite nicely in the last couple of weeks. If this clears the $1300 level, look for fireworks on gold and gold stocks going forward. This ETF has been forming a nice little base pattern just as it enters the period of seasonal strength.

By the look of the chart, gold has pretty much been going nowhere fast, if anything, a slight trend to the downside. That is not negative, but is not overly positive. Gold, seasonally, tends to move between now and October. However, the chart shows gold is in a bit of a triangle, and it needs to break that. If gold breaks $1300, that would be very bullish. Being in a triangle, he won’t buy. He likes to buy on a break out.