Opinions
Don Lato
Walmart Inc
WMT-N
COMMENT
Jan 24, 2017
Stock price when the opinion was issued
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By and large, commercial real estate landlords do consider this name to be in the grocery space. It's doing a better and better job of that. But not a pure-play grocery. He thinks of defensive, grocery-anchored shopping centres as neighbourhood, urban, smaller centres -- where you can get a haircut and do other errands that can't be done online.
Premium contentWalmart today is a people-led, tech-powered omnichannel retailer dedicated to helping people save money and live better. Since Sam Walton opened the first Walmart, we have opened thousands of stores across the U.S. and internationally. Around the world, customers want the same things: value, a broad assortment of quality items and services, a convenient and enjoyable shopping experience, and to do business with a company they trust. We are on a mission to meet our customers and members wherever they are, with the things they want, where and how they want them. And although the ways we deliver these experiences is changing, and changing fast, our promise to improve the customer and associate experience is constant. Social media mentions are up 188% in the past 24h.
Probably don't want to buy it today. Concerned with valuation of 34x forward PE for 7% growth. Makes for a high PEG ratio at 5. Trading at 200-day MA, so could be some support there for a trade. Low beta, will do well in an economic downturn as grocery is such a big part of its business. E-commerce is improving. Intense competition.
Tariffs aren't in place at this point. Tariff talks are coming up this weekend, and things can change on a dime. A year from now, he doesn't see tariffs in place at the levels first announced. Worries on that front are premature.
Technically, the stock is great -- higher highs, higher lows. Valuation's up there at 38x forward PE, for 7-7.5% earnings growth. Expensive at over 5x PEG.
It would be terrific if Walmart operated as a charity by subsidizing its customers. Problem is retailers have incredibly low profit margins to begin with. Also, they couldn't plan ahead, but nobody knew these tariffs were coming. When they did know, they did their best shifting to sourcing products from countries that had the lowest tariffs. But you can't change your entire supply chain overnight. Given their huge scale, WMT negotiate the best deal with their suppliers, and have tried not to raise prices that much for customers. They will certainly lose money on some products. Walmart should be the last company on Earth to be singled out for profiteering.
It would be terrific if Walmart operated as a charity by subsidizing its customers. Problem is retailers have incredibly low profit margins to begin with. Also, they couldn't plan ahead, but nobody knew these tariffs were coming. When they did know, they did their best shifting to sourcing products from countries that had the lowest tariffs. But you can't change your entire supply chain overnight. Given their huge scale, WMT negotiate the best deal with their suppliers, and have tried not to raise prices that much for customers. They will certainly lose money on some products. Walmart should be the last company on Earth to be singled out for profiteering.
Hard not to like. Great job on e-commerce, after having lagged. Now has a lovely hybrid model of in-store and online. Very price competitive. Well-positioned structurally for the long term. Massive importer of goods, so tariffs are a pressure. Valuation's not cheap, but it never is. Buy and forget about it.
Has been rangebound within $93-100, but is digesting after a big move up after April. The Chaykin Money Flow remains positive. The MACD line made a bullish crossover Lang suggests buying ahead of next month's report. Lang targets $105-110 and he agrees.
He would rate this as a Sell to a Hold. He is concerned about the long-term future in terms of generating the earnings growth. They are pretty saturated across North America. Expansion is going to have to come internationally, and they had to give up in Britain. They can only tighten margins so much. Where they are really going to be in jeopardy is if some huge protectionist bill comes in. There are a lot of better places to be.