Gordon ReidWalgreen Boots AllianceWBAPAST TOP PICKOct 24, 2012

They report Tuesday. He likes their deal in which they go private. Let's see if things have gotten better or if there is buyer's remorse.

They entered a great deal (Walgreens to be taken private by Sycamore in $10 billion). If you own shares, sell and buy Costco.

It was a good quarter. But it is important to note that one quarter does not make a trend, and there is still lots of work to be done here. It is still in turnaround mode. It still has a massive amount of debt. It is cheap, though, and the quarter might see shorts start to cover a bit. So the trend will likely be 'up' and the worst 'could' be over here. But there remains plenty of risk and we would prefer to see another quarter or two of continued improvement, and even pay more once the turn is indeed fully established and on a firm foothold. Much could still go wrong here. 
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It reports Friday.  It needs to do something to help its woes. He suspect the CEO has buyers lined up for parts of the company. Don't bet against the CEO, but don't bet on WBA.

Many headwinds, too big to overcome. Sell, take the loss.

He bought CVS instead. WBA did a big purchase of Boots which they may be regretting. WBA really operates pharmacies, plus a medical business. He prefers CVS for Aetna, their insurance business, pharmacy benefits and a medical business.

Avoid, because of poor execution and being in a poor sector. There will be a tax on online delivery services. Too many problems.

It will go down only 9 more points. The new CEO needs to invest AI, cut overhead and increase profit. 

Problems. Avoid. Called "value", but continues to move south. Technically, 200-day MA is going lower and stock price is below that. 5x forward PE, but earnings growth is negative.

The alliance had all this promise, and just hasn't been able to deliver. He's not brave or smart enough to pick the bottom on a stock like this. He owns Loblaw and, with it, Shopper's Drug Mart.

Beware of companies closing stores and calling that successfully. Closing stores is never good. This whole space has been challenged. He had a poor experience holding the peer, CVS. WBA was just kicked out of an index.

One of the things he looks at is sustainability of dividends. Are you paying your dividends through free cashflow? Cut dividend. Struggled ever since acquiring Boots in the UK a decade ago, which has crippled the company.

Stock's been completely annihilated. It's only in the drugstore chain business, which has been really tough.

Down 17% in Q1, plus another 10% today. The CEO though could turn things around in a year. No hurry to buy this one.

Wait another quarter to see what the CEO will do. Don't jump the gun. It's a troubled company.