Stockchase Insights
Walgreen Boots Alliance
WBA-Q
RISKY
Jan 13, 2025
Trevor Rose’s Insights - Trevor’s most-liked answers from 5i Research
It was a good quarter. But it is important to note that one quarter does not make a trend, and there is still lots of work to be done here. It is still in turnaround mode. It still has a massive amount of debt. It is cheap, though, and the quarter might see shorts start to cover a bit. So the trend will likely be 'up' and the worst 'could' be over here. But there remains plenty of risk and we would prefer to see another quarter or two of continued improvement, and even pay more once the turn is indeed fully established and on a firm foothold. Much could still go wrong here. Unlock Premium - Try 5i Free
The alliance had all this promise, and just hasn't been able to deliver. He's not brave or smart enough to pick the bottom on a stock like this. He owns Loblaw and, with it, Shopper's Drug Mart.
Problems. Avoid. Called "value", but continues to move south. Technically, 200-day MA is going lower and stock price is below that. 5x forward PE, but earnings growth is negative.
He bought CVS instead. WBA did a big purchase of Boots which they may be regretting. WBA really operates pharmacies, plus a medical business. He prefers CVS for Aetna, their insurance business, pharmacy benefits and a medical business.
It reports Friday. It needs to do something to help its woes. He suspect the CEO has buyers lined up for parts of the company. Don't bet against the CEO, but don't bet on WBA.
It was a good quarter. But it is important to note that one quarter does not make a trend, and there is still lots of work to be done here. It is still in turnaround mode. It still has a massive amount of debt. It is cheap, though, and the quarter might see shorts start to cover a bit. So the trend will likely be 'up' and the worst 'could' be over here. But there remains plenty of risk and we would prefer to see another quarter or two of continued improvement, and even pay more once the turn is indeed fully established and on a firm foothold. Much could still go wrong here.
Unlock Premium - Try 5i Free