Visa Inc.VBUYJun 17, 2024Stock price when the opinion was issued
As of Sep 04, 2026. Market Open.
Visa and Mastercard have been treading water the past year because the market has been fixated on AI, but that money has been rotating out of AI into places like credit cards. The two companies have some of the best business models, big moats and trading at attractive PEs, though neither are at decades-long low PEs. Visa's layoff of 7% of workforce is good for the stock. Probably AI is making Visa more productive.
Mastercard and Visa have been weak because cash-to-card conversion has historically been the easiest thing for them to do but is now over. Value-added services are instead driving more growth. Agentic AI traffic is about to go parabolic, so can the cards play the role of authentication layer? He thinks so, and they should. Stablecoins and peer-to-peer transactions are not big deals, not major threats.
Both are phenomenal businesses. Comparable on valuation and share price performance. If you own one, don't switch.
His clients own Visa, and have for a very long time. Makes the most sense for him as more payments become digitized and V captures more market share. It's the largest payment network, so its profitability is a bit higher on margins. Bit north of 20x PE, FCF yield north of 4%. Attractive valuation for an essential business.
For 2024, 2025 and 2026, 2027, 2028 EPS is expected at: $9.95, $11.17, $12.63, $14.34 and $16.64, for a five year growth rate of 67% (inclusive, not annualized). Sales for the same periods: $35.9B, $39.7B, $43.7B, $47.5B, $52.0B (growth 44%). Given its global market share position, blue-chip status and performance history, we would be comfortable buying today. A better price might be $235 if one wanted to time things and wait for a possible correction.
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