Stockchase Opinions

Jean-Francois Tardif Uni-Select Inc UNS-T TOP PICK Jul 07, 2009

Canadian leader in used car parts. Also have a lot of business in the US. Recession resistant. Trades at about 10X earnings. 2% yield. All earnings are free cash flow, which they can use to make acquisitions.
$23.600

Stock price when the opinion was issued

wholesale distributors
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DON'T BUY

They have looked at in the past, but are not owners. They released weak quarterly earnings and thinks it may take time for the value to be there. He would like to see a couple of good quarterly earnings reports first.

COMMENT

This company grew by rolling up paint suppliers in the US in the auto-finishing business, much like Boyd Automotive except it is a bit upstream, actually supplying the paint in to the shops. The company did well for a while but after they had acquired a big chunk of the industry, their pricing got high. Since then, earnings have been disappointing, their Canadian exposure has been tough with the economy slowing down, and the stock sold off. In addition, the automated driving support features will lead to fewer collisions and hurt the repair business over the longer term. Over the short term, investors could nibble at the stock at this price and then sell it on a bounce. The stock dropped today after the CEO departed abruptly and the company cut its forecast.

TOP PICK

A distributor of automotive parts in Canada and in the UK and a US-based paint finishing shop. He bought this in February. It has not done well for him. It has made three bad earns announcements in a row. Last week they announced that the quarter would not be good. They also announced that the CEO was gone, which he sees as good because that CEO would over-promise and under-deliver. Finally, they announced a strategic review of the company, which he believes will lead to sale of one of its businesses, probably the paint finishing business, and this will unlock good value. Yield 1.7%. (Analysts’ price target is $25.64)

TOP PICK
Previous management lied to shareholders about how well they were doing and was thrown out. The September quarter was a good quarter. They are in the businesses of Canadian aftermarket auto parts, US paint finishing and UK aftermarket auto parts. He thinks they will sell their US paint finishing business. (Analysts’ price target is $25.83)
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Feb 16/18, Down 26%) They sell replacement parts wholesale to garages and own paint finishing shops. Management had made great promises over the past year which did not materialize. Now the new CEO is doing a strategic evaluation of the business and he thinks this may result in the divestment of the paint division. He thinks it is a good buy here as it trades below book value. The stock has not made new lows, so he thinks investors are starting to bring support. He still owns it and likes it.
COMMENT
Amazon is not the problem. Going to review selling off businesses, and look for a new CEO. But they haven't commented on these issues, so market assumes nothing good will happen, and so the stock went down.
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Sep 25/18, Down 52%) It is an auto parts wholesaler in Canada and Britain and an auto paint distributor in the US, where they are having some problems. They were to do a strategic review but they have not done it yet. He moved on.
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Dec 20/18, Down 14%) He sold at just around $13. The largest auto parts distributor in Canada. The company fired their CEO and announced a strategic review and nothing has happened since. They have done nothing to reorganize. He would not touch it.
TOP PICK
Distributes automotive parts and industrial paint. Suffered during pandemic. Will benefit from increased driving post-pandemic. New CEO is well respected, paid down debt. Cheap valuation. A good turnaround play. No dividend. (Analysts’ price target is $17.80)
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Jun 30/21, Up 12%) He trimmed a lot of his shares recently. It's a turnaround story, having brought in new managers doing a good job. He's seen many companies in auto supplies run into supply chain shortages--demand is there, but not supply, so this is a near-term risk. Long term still looks good.