Union Pacific CorpUNPCOMMENTJan 26, 2016Stock price when the opinion was issued
As of Oct 01, 2026. Market Open.
Right now the US economy is doing better, so this stock's started to pick up again from April lows. But not shooting the lights out. This rail hauls agricultural, auto, and chemical products.
Biggest challenge is what are these railroads carrying? CNR has suffered in Canada because it's one of the largest shippers of vehicles, and tariffs are causing issues. Economy will drive how well the rails do. They've been going sideways, and there's no catalyst right now. If you want to buy now, you'll need to be patient.
This has had a heck of a correction, almost 50%. The problem is that the earnings forecast has been rising and rising, and has now turned and is going down. This is a reflection on the movement of goods in the US economy, including away from the ports. He had a “bounce target” of $66. To get the stock really, really cheaply, you want it to get down to 2X Book which is $53-$54. He would be afraid of another 10% drop in the market. If it did, this would then be beautifully cheap.