Jim Lebenthal
Union Pacific Corp
UNP-N
WATCH
Jul 01, 2024
Been on a downtrend, though fairly priced. Earnings need to beat for shares to also rise. Trades at 18x forward PE and a PEG ratio of 1.7. A tailwind is US capex spending and all those materials that need transporting, like steel.
UNP is Warren Buffet's 2nd favorite railroad to own (he owns BNSF). It has paid its dividend for 125 consecutive years. It is prudently using some cash reserves to aggressively retire debt and buy back shares. It trades at 9x earnings and supports a ROE of 45%. The dividend is backed by a payout ratio of 50% of cash flow. We recommend setting a stop-loss at $207, looking to achieve $268 -- upside potential over 17%. Yield 2.2%
His concern is its 18x forward PE. A railroad stock can grow only so much more than GDP. Pricing power is limited. He needs to see earnings outperform.
Operating income in Q4 +5% to $2.5 billion. Was held back by tariff talks; tariffs will hurt, but they have room to move with better volume and pricing. He targets $275.
In process of buying a competitor and creating the first transcontinental railroad. A once-in-a-generation opportunity if they can get it right. Better opportunity than CNR for you to expand your portfolio beyond Canada.
Been on a downtrend, though fairly priced. Earnings need to beat for shares to also rise. Trades at 18x forward PE and a PEG ratio of 1.7. A tailwind is US capex spending and all those materials that need transporting, like steel.