Stockchase Opinions

The Panic-Proof Portfolio (Stockchase Research) UBS Group AG UBS-N TOP PICK Apr 30, 2024

Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O'Reilly

We reiterate UBS as a TOP PICK.  The Swiss based bank is under pressure as analysts believe it may be required to hold larger capital reserves.  Management argues it can withstand a $200 billion loss.  The government will not publish its recommendation until next year.  Meanwhile, cash reserves are strong, as debt is aggressively retired.  It trades at book value and supports a 38% ROE.  We continue to recommend a stop at $24.50, looking to achieve $32.50 -- upside potential of 19%.  Yield 1.2%

(Analysts’ price target is $32.49)
$26.915

Stock price when the opinion was issued

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TOP PICK

UBS Group AG is a multinational investment bank and financial services company founded and based in Switzerland. Co-headquartered in the cities of Zürich and Basel, it maintains a presence in all major financial centres as the largest Swiss banking institution and the largest private bank in the world. Social media mentions are up 8% in the past 24h.

SELL

In a good space. Bought good Credit Suisse assets for a song. Prefers large US investment banks like GS and MS, better upside. Yield of 2.1%.

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Curated by Michael O'Reilly since 2020.
1550+ opinions with 4.81 rating (one of the best performing expert).

TOP PICK
Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O’Reilly

UBS is the 9th largest bank in the world, based on capitalization.  We like that quarterly cash reserves are growing, while debt is retired.  It trades a 28x earnings and supports a robust 40% ROE. Its modest dividend is backed by a payout ratio under 10% of cash flow.  We recommend setting a stop-loss at $24.50, looking to achieve $34 — upside potential of 17%.  Yield 1.2% 

(Analysts’ price target is $33.62)
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This is a Panic-proof Portfolio opinion which is available only for Premium members

Curated by Michael O'Reilly since 2020.
1550+ opinions with 4.81 rating (one of the best performing expert).

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Apr 30/24, Up 12.5%)Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O'Reilly

Our PAST TOP PICK with UBS is progressing well.  To remain disciplined, we recommend trailing up the stop (from $24.50) to $27.00 at this time.  

PARTIAL BUY

Buying Credit Suisse turned them into one of the largest wealth management businesses in the world with $4 trillion in assets. They keep creating new business units and products to their high new worth clients (i.e. mortgages, alternative investments). If things pan out--as earnings have been accretive since the takeover--2026's target is $315 at 8x PE. So, that's decent value. Caveat: the last 10-20 years have no dividend growth.

HOLD

Still more upside, but remember that's upside in the context of a bank. Great bank. Credit Suisse acquisition reinforced its assets, as well as wholesale banking and Asia wealth footprint. Tactically bullish.

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This is a Panic-proof Portfolio opinion which is available only for Premium members

Curated by Michael O'Reilly since 2020.
1550+ opinions with 4.81 rating (one of the best performing expert).

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Apr 30/24, Up 14.9%)Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O'Reilly

Our PAST TOP PICK with UBS has achieved its target at $32.  To remain disciplined, we recommend covering half the position at this time and maintaining the stop at $27.

premium

This is a Panic-proof Portfolio opinion which is available only for Premium members

Curated by Michael O'Reilly since 2020.
1550+ opinions with 4.81 rating (one of the best performing expert).

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Apr 30/24, Up 26%)Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O'Reilly

Our PAST TOP PICK with UBS is progressing well.  To remain disciplined, we recommend trailing up the stop (from $27) to $31 at this time.  

premium

This is a Panic-proof Portfolio opinion which is available only for Premium members

Curated by Michael O'Reilly since 2020.
1550+ opinions with 4.81 rating (one of the best performing expert).

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Apr 30/24, Up 15.1%)Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O’Reilly

Our PAST TOP PICK with UBS has triggered its stop at $31.  To remain disciplined, we recommend covering the position at this time.  When combined with our previous guidance, this will result in a net investment gain of 11%