Stockchase Opinions

Hilary Kramer Twilio Inc TWLO-N DON'T BUY Oct 14, 2016

A cloud communications company. It creates platforms for communications. This has fallen quite hard, and she would stay away from something like this. Consider something like Arista Networks (ANET-N) instead. These are programmable chips that are used in the cloud-based software companies. They will get acquired. They have a technology that she believes is even stronger than Cisco’s (CSCO-Q).

$46.110

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SELL
He just sold it. A high beta name with no profits, and down 82% in 2022. An innovative communications platform, but their latest guidance was negative: slower growth in 2023. Will look at it next summer.
DON'T BUY
He bought this before Covid, sold it during, then soon sold it again for a nice profit. A great company. Could be a take-out target.
WATCH

Cloud communications platform. Caters to developers. Difficult time as interest rates went up. Usage-based payment. Sees it growing north of 30% over next 5 years. First, need to see Fed pause hikes. 12-month target of $73.50. Keep your eye on it.

BUY

He last bought this in 2019. It's a long-term holding. He likes it that the CEO bought $10 million in shares. This has broken above its 200-day moving average. They are cost-cutting and managing efficiencies. This has more upside than downside for a long-term investor.

SELL

He bought it in December, because he thought there was a technical breakout above $75, but just sold it because shares have done nothing.

WATCH

Cloud communications. Great idea, difficult to monetize. Have to wait a couple more quarters to see how they'll monetize the AI side. He got in, and got out as the stock was climbing the "mountain" as seen on the chart.

DON'T BUY

There was a negative analyst's note today--business is bad and there's warning of a consumer pullback. It's sad to see this disintegrate.

BUY
Trevor Rose’s Insights - Trevor’s most-liked answers from 5i Research

TWLO does not report until Feb 14, but it reported preliminary numbers. Revenue growth is expected at 11%, vs 8% estimates. 4Q income is expected to be above guidance. A $2B share buyback was approved. 2025 organic revenue growth is expected to be 7% to 8%. Free cash flow is expected to be at least $825M. These were solid prelim results and outlook. Things look good here for sure, but full details will be available next month. 
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BUY ON WEAKNESS

He can't believe how this has become a great assistant to small businesses to build business. They had a great quarter.

DON'T BUY

They hype got too big about this, and the field is too crowded.