Jason Snipe, CIO, Odyssey Capital AdvisorsTwilio IncTWLOSELLDec 30, 2022

Margins are expanding and revenues growing at double digits. Entering 2026 we'll see a mean reversion between semis and software. We're seeing early signs in Twilio, Adobe and Salesforce.

They hype got too big about this, and the field is too crowded.

TWLO does not report until Feb 14, but it reported preliminary numbers. Revenue growth is expected at 11%, vs 8% estimates. 4Q income is expected to be above guidance. A $2B share buyback was approved. 2025 organic revenue growth is expected to be 7% to 8%. Free cash flow is expected to be at least $825M. These were solid prelim results and outlook. Things look good here for sure, but full details will be available next month. 
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He can't believe how this has become a great assistant to small businesses to build business. They had a great quarter.

There was a negative analyst's note today--business is bad and there's warning of a consumer pullback. It's sad to see this disintegrate.

Cloud communications. Great idea, difficult to monetize. Have to wait a couple more quarters to see how they'll monetize the AI side. He got in, and got out as the stock was climbing the "mountain" as seen on the chart.

He bought it in December, because he thought there was a technical breakout above $75, but just sold it because shares have done nothing.

He last bought this in 2019. It's a long-term holding. He likes it that the CEO bought $10 million in shares. This has broken above its 200-day moving average. They are cost-cutting and managing efficiencies. This has more upside than downside for a long-term investor.

Cloud communications platform. Caters to developers. Difficult time as interest rates went up. Usage-based payment. Sees it growing north of 30% over next 5 years. First, need to see Fed pause hikes. 12-month target of $73.50. Keep your eye on it.