Trevor Rose’s Insights - Trevor’s most-liked answers from 5i Research
TWLO does not report until Feb 14, but it reported preliminary numbers. Revenue growth is expected at 11%, vs 8% estimates. 4Q income is expected to be above guidance. A $2B share buyback was approved. 2025 organic revenue growth is expected to be 7% to 8%. Free cash flow is expected to be at least $825M. These were solid prelim results and outlook. Things look good here for sure, but full details will be available next month. Unlock Premium - Try 5i Free
Margins are expanding and revenues growing at double digits. Entering 2026 we'll see a mean reversion between semis and software. We're seeing early signs in Twilio, Adobe and Salesforce.
Cloud communications. Great idea, difficult to monetize. Have to wait a couple more quarters to see how they'll monetize the AI side. He got in, and got out as the stock was climbing the "mountain" as seen on the chart.
He last bought this in 2019. It's a long-term holding. He likes it that the CEO bought $10 million in shares. This has broken above its 200-day moving average. They are cost-cutting and managing efficiencies. This has more upside than downside for a long-term investor.
Cloud communications platform. Caters to developers. Difficult time as interest rates went up. Usage-based payment. Sees it growing north of 30% over next 5 years. First, need to see Fed pause hikes. 12-month target of $73.50. Keep your eye on it.
He just sold it. A high beta name with no profits, and down 82% in 2022. An innovative communications platform, but their latest guidance was negative: slower growth in 2023. Will look at it next summer.
(A Top Pick Dec 15/21, Down 82%) Excellent example why you need a diversified portfolio. Unprofitable, speculative names like this should have a lower weight in your portfolio. Victim of the software apocalypse in 2022. He sold. Still a leader with 50% market share. Growth has slowed from 35% to 25%. On his radar, but not buying in the short term.
(A Top Pick Sep 09/21, Down 73%) Used to be the darling. Not now. This is why professional help is so critical. Interest rate spikes are the death knell to unprofitable, highly leveraged tech.
SaaS really got punished with rate hikes, inflation, and supply chain issues. Operating system for the digital world. Story is great, but underlying metrics and free cashflow are of real concern. Loves the company, but it's unprofitable.
TWLO does not report until Feb 14, but it reported preliminary numbers. Revenue growth is expected at 11%, vs 8% estimates. 4Q income is expected to be above guidance. A $2B share buyback was approved. 2025 organic revenue growth is expected to be 7% to 8%. Free cash flow is expected to be at least $825M. These were solid prelim results and outlook. Things look good here for sure, but full details will be available next month.
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