Opinions
Brett Girard, CPA, CA, CFA
Tesla Inc
TSLA-Q
DON'T BUY
Apr 08, 2025
Stock price when the opinion was issued
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Very volatile. The story is shifting a bit from rapid EV growth to managing its scale. Q2 saw delivery fall 5% YOY, but still beat reduced expectations. Price cuts help, but continue to pressure profitability. Limited near-term upside. Value is 2/10. Compressed margins, rising Chinese competition. Political drama as well.
The fundamental business, EVs, is in decline, so expectations are -13% and -22% revenues and earnings. But the market will give Tesla the benefit of the doubt in robotics. She bought it recently at $293 and is now at $333. This will be rangebound from $260-350. Now, sell calls. This won't change until there are new revenue streams to monetize. You can make money selling calls.
Premium contentTesla, Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA) is a leading player in the electric vehicle (EV) industry, known for its innovative approach to automobility and clean energy solutions. It was founded in 2003 by Martin Eberhard and Marc Tarpenning, with Elon Musk joining subsequent funding rounds and later becoming the chief architect and face of the company. Tesla’s product lineup includes fully electric vehicles such as the Model S, Model 3, Model X, and Model Y, along with energy storage solutions like the Powerwall and Powerpack. The company aims to accelerate the world's transition to sustainable energy through both electric vehicles and renewable energy products. Social media mentions are up 104.9% in the past 24h.
He looks at performance in 1-, 6- and 12-month time frames. The 1- and 6 months were negative, but over 12 months the stock is up 55%. Actually, he insists it was positive over the past month. (The host insists it is down the past month, but it depends on precisely which days and times of the day are noted for the calculations.)
For 2026, the big thing is going to be the Optimus robot. Company estimates it will sell 20-30k of these $20k robots. They're already being used in factories. Also things going on with Grok, the large language model; needs a partner, and he feels it will be AAPL.
EVs are important, but you have to look to the future with this one. May be dead money for the next quarter, but will absolutely bounce back with Optimus.
Premium contentTesla, Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA) is a leading player in the electric vehicle (EV) industry, known for its innovative approach to automobility and clean energy solutions. It was founded in 2003 by Martin Eberhard and Marc Tarpenning, with Elon Musk joining subsequent funding rounds and later becoming the chief architect and face of the company. Tesla’s product lineup includes fully electric vehicles such as the Model S, Model 3, Model X, and Model Y, along with energy storage solutions like the Powerwall and Powerpack. The company aims to accelerate the world's transition to sustainable energy through both electric vehicles and renewable energy products. Social media mentions are up 4.1% in the past 24h.
Trades at 176x PE, not exactly bargain basement. Musk's antics in politics have turned non-Americans away. EV sales in general have stalled. He saw a BYD vehicle in France, and it's way more beautiful than a Tesla and 2/3 the price. Lots of competition. Musk's compensation demands are egregious.
Musk is a remarkable entrepreneur, but there's a lot of promotion involved. Right, particularly in the US, the people driving Teslas aren't happy, given DOGE and the White House. We see the backlash with protests. If Tesla survives 10 years, there will probably be a lot of revenue from self-driving cards, but Tesla has to get there. The brand has fallen out of favour. If things go badly in the White House, it would reflect more badly on the company, because Musk is so tied to the White House.