Opinions
Jeff Parent B. Eng. FCSI CIM
Tesla Inc
TSLA-Q
RISKY
Nov 22, 2024
Stock price when the opinion was issued
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He thinks Musk will hang around Washington no longer than end-June, then will return to work. Cars make up 70-80% of company revenues, which will change. They lead in gen AI. Next year, though, agentic AI and robotics will be the new theme in tech. Musk promises 20,000-30,000 Tesla robotics will be sold next year. Robots are used in car factories, but will be used one day in homes for housework.
The problem is this trades on sentiment, not fundamentals. Of course, the issue now is Musk. Probably, enough people not buying their cars will impact their sales. Also, a Chinese competitor is outselling Tesla. The valuation remains a premium, but would you own such a company at this level with slower sales and this sentiment? He's rather see Tesla at $200 then take a look at it, and even then would buy a tranche.
Its reputation has taken a hit this year due to Musk's highly polarizing involvement with Trump. This has taken the robotaxi story off the table, allowing Uber to roar. But robotaxis were never a threat to Uber in the first place. He still thinks Tesla has an edge given Musk's relationship with Trump, but he didn't expect this much public backlash against Musk/Tesla.
Funny that people who bought a year ago have to attach explanatory bumper stickers. If it's going to be a good buy at $200-225, it's a good buy at $265; you're buying it for the longer term. He can't come to terms with the valuation.
If you decide you want to buy, put in 10% today, and you'll feel better. If you've wanted it for a long time, and you don't pull the trigger today, you'll forever hesitate. It's just psychology.
His father has a wonderful expression, "It's the second mouse that gets the cheese." Not sure tariffs are enough to provide continuing support for an EV car maker when the Chinese are doing it so much cheaper.
Shares are cut in half from highs. Bulls say that Trump's close relationship with Musk should give Tesla a big advantage in self-driving cars and robots. But Tesla's core car business has collapsed and tariffs will be awful. Is the most expensive Mag 7 stock, trading at 87x PE. He can't trust their estimates--their car business is in such bad shape.
Musk is a remarkable entrepreneur, but there's a lot of promotion involved. Right, particularly in the US, the people driving Teslas aren't happy, given DOGE and the White House. We see the backlash with protests. If Tesla survives 10 years, there will probably be a lot of revenue from self-driving cards, but Tesla has to get there. The brand has fallen out of favour. If things go badly in the White House, it would reflect more badly on the company, because Musk is so tied to the White House.
As a car company, never made sense to pay the demanding multiple. So an investor has to put faith in the technology side, and he's not comfortable with that. Musk is in the news big time, and he's not gaining any friends. International blowback against TSLA and Musk, reputational risk. Sales numbers weak.
Record highs were in 2021. RSI is a very short-term indicator, comparing today's price to where it's been in the last 14 days; right now, pretty close to the top. Doing well again today, but how long can this be sustained? A very jumpy stock. Could suffer a pretty big pullback to the high $200 level very quickly, about a 20% drop. Support level at $280. Valuations are difficult.
Be very careful. Don't place big bets, not a candidate for 10% or more of your portfolio. If you think it's going higher, you might consider buying some options, which would reduce your overall risk to some degree.