Dennis da Silva
Turquoise Hill Resources
TRQ-T
COMMENT
Sep 15, 2017
A Mongolian project with single assets. For all intents and purposes, it is a public controlled vehicle of Rio Tinto (RIO-N), which owns 51%. A low grade large deposit with lots of growth going down the road as they develop the underground portion. It is currently open pit. Feels it is fairly valued. Sensitive to copper.
It comes down to your view on copper. If you have a positive view on copper, this asset will go on for 40-50 years. There is quite a large capital outlay to build the asset. It will be 2 to 3 years and you have to be on side with Mongolia. It’s a buy and hold.
It is a play in the huge Mongolian copper mine. They have another year and a half of liquidity. There are concerns that they cannot come up with their share of the CAP-X. It got deleted from the TSX index. The quality of the asset is not in question. There is also tax loss selling and it is now oversold. There should be a pretty good bounce in the stock. (Analysts’ price target is $1.44)
There's a big fall in July from $1.38 to $.82. A huge drop of 43%. It bottomed out at $.60 and then moved back to above $1.00. A very volatile stock. It doesn't looks good below $.80.
It's in production. The question is how much more capital does it require. It is a good deposit and they have a good partner, but Mongolia is and will be an issue. It is highly levered to copper prices and you still have the geopolitical risk. It is a big asset in terms of copper.
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A Mongolian project with single assets. For all intents and purposes, it is a public controlled vehicle of Rio Tinto (RIO-N), which owns 51%. A low grade large deposit with lots of growth going down the road as they develop the underground portion. It is currently open pit. Feels it is fairly valued. Sensitive to copper.