Stockchase InsightsTC EnergyTRP.TOPARTIAL BUYFeb 16, 2024

It is one of the most expensive of the midstream companies -he owns other pipelines. It is in a good position with natural gas infrastructure and growth of supply. Hold for the long term - he is not concerned about the short term.

Likes the business of pipelines -- local monopoly, contracted cashflows. Problem today is that their value is not lost on investors. A HALO stock, which AI can't replace. He'd trim, look for a better valuation to enter.

Possible deal with Iran caused similar price action across the whole complex. The whole space was at a high. 

Both an oil play and an energy infrastructure play. Project backlog of $8B (with ~90% sanctioned, and another $12B being discussed) looks very visible. Great company. Trades at premium of 20x PE for 5% growth.

Better places for new $$.

Nat gas prices have fallen, but you have to stay focused on what this company is all about. Utility with very little volatility attached to it.

 Are similar in terms of RSI. They trend in the same direction on the charts, with TC performing a little better recently. Sees little difference between the two. 

Good total return. Spun off it oil pipelines as SOBO, so now it's a more focused play on clean energy.

Definitely holding. Nat gas prices have gone up 40% since the beginning of the year. Sold its oil, kept natural gas, and now involved in nuclear. Decent dividend, with growth in 4-5% range. More pipeline infrastructure to be built in Canada, US, and Mexico. Still a buy.

A good prime minister in their corner who's working on pipelines as projects. Brendan is cautiously optimistic that there will continue to be pipeline expansion. TRP probably continues to do well. We've seen a bit of rebound in the pipeline sector. Lower interest rates should keep the economy at least at the same level, if not expand it. With pressure on currencies, sees pricing for all commodities in USD continue fairly strong.

Likes the natural gas sector as a transition sector, and we probably won't be burning as much in 25-50 years. Much better for the environment than coal.

His preference is TRP -- it has the gas assets, whereas SOBO has the oil assets. Spinoff happened because TRP wanted to lose the discount of oil. Negative sentiment on oil had hurt the multiple, while investor view on nat gas was a lot more positive.

In the space, his ranking is ENB at #1, then PPL, then TRP. Valuations are quite strong. Of the ways he invests for clients, the "income bucket" has performed so well recently that it has the fewest number of Buys of the core "buckets" that he follows. Due to the outlook for interest rates being to go down, income names have been bid up in advance of that. Therefore, valuations have become a bit rich.

Watch and wait -- could be some volatility and an opportunity to pick it up a bit lower. He'd look to try to get it around 10x cashflow, and it's north of 11x right now.

It has made data centre announcements and has an attractive highly contracted asset base mix. It has had a good run over the past two years. Trades at a premium but warrants it with visible growth and competent management. Trades at 18X 2027 with 4 to 5% growth. You can buy it but he prefers Gibson or Altagas with a better price to growth ratios.

The only pipeline he owns. Likes the huge gas pipeline network. Pipelines are not as vulnerable to commodity price fluctuations. Strong, investment-grade credit. Good path to growing dividend at mid-single-digit pace. Good yield. Pullback is a good opportunity.

This market will make anyone look good :)  One of the largest pipelines in NA, focused on natural gas. Strong future, as access to overseas markets will allow those markets to reduce reliance on coal, for example. We still need to source power when the wind stops blowing and the sun goes down.

Another great Canadian company. Pays and grows dividends. More data centres means more energy needed, a lot fueled by natural gas and that's right in TRP's wheelhouse. If it's a core holding, keep holding. Could use pullbacks to buy more. Additional BOC rate cuts will also help.

One of his key energy holdings. Is more opportunity to invest in the US, so there is growth, despite being a highly levered company.

TRP P/E at 19X compares with its 10-year range of 12 to 19x so it is certainly on the high end of the range. EPS growth as noted is not going to be spectacular. The stock is trading for its yield of 4.74% and its safety going into a possible recession. Business is historically stable and the tax-adjusted yield is certainly attractive vs fixed-income alternatives. We are comfortable with it, but more as an income security and would not expect big gains here. It's up 33% in the past year and we doubt that rate is sustainable, certainly. The debt is nothing new of course, and common for the sector. Lower rates will help here. It has 13 BUYS, 10 HOLDS and 3 SELLS. Avg. target price $73.37. We would consider it 'buyable' slightly lower. Our main comment here references the 'riskier' note in the question. IF we head into a period of weakness, we would prefer to own TRP over dozens of other.
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