Stockchase Opinions

Darren SissonsTotal SATOTBUYJan 27, 2017

There is more upside if oil prices remain where they are. Dividends are extended and should be more than in the 3%-5% range. We just need some stability. The environment is conducive to the stability of prices. This is the time to buy some more.

$50.40

Stock price when the opinion was issued

integrated oils
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WAIT
The oil side will always be cyclical. A large and successful investor in renewables, but this is still just a tiny part of their business. Huge investment needed to move the needle. A long haul of 20 years before renewables contribute more to revenues.
BUY
Has a great E&P operation and fine balance sheet. Solid dividend. Energy demand isn't going away.
HOLD
Going abroad to invest in energy has made sense recently. He likes the dividend and if oil prices can go higher, it will be a good investment. He does not see too much upside in oil prices, however. Yield 5.3%.
DON'T BUY
A foreign ADR like this one should be in your cash account, not your RRSP, so you can claim the withholding tax. BP had better performance last quarter. Total's been selling assets, so he's not a fan. The dividend isn't going up fast enough. His resource of choice is water, not oil. Price of oil is in a tug-of-war.
TOP PICK

This is a play on global energy. Also, Total is moving rapidly into the renewable space. Dividend yield is 4.6%. They are looking at their business 50 years out. Even though oil consumption is still growing in the present, the long-term future is not there. Total generates huge free cash flow, its balance sheet is better than it has been for 25 years, they will have almost no debt in 3 years and will have huge room to raise the dividend. (Analysts’ price target is $71.16)

TOP PICK

Juicy income with the fastest growth in the industry, plus they’re one of the bigger LNG players. Investments years ago are bearing fruit. Gas is growing faster than other energy sources. Like it for short- and long-term. Yield is 4.8%. (Analysts’ price target is $58.16.)

BUY

One of the few oil companies he owns. It is a fully integrated oil company. It has growth. Their downstream and retail businesses are doing well and help modulate their cash flows. (5.3% yield).

COMMENT

Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A-N) or Total (TOT-N)? He prefers Shell. Both companies are so large and diverse that you can’t even call them heavy oil. They are both a bit sleepy and are never going to blow you up, but they don’t move is much as some others.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Jan 12/16. Up 18.61%.) One of the most conservatively managed oil/gas companies globally. Their refining and marketing benefits from low oil prices. They are making acquisitions when everybody else is forced to sell, setting themselves up for long-term value creation.

WAIT

A good source of dividend income? When oil moved from $35-$45, he sold some oil stocks that had more torque in them, and then moved into some of these multinationals, where he was really just looking to clip the 5%-6% dividend yield, and for them to go sideways while oil corrected. He has just sold his holdings in this, in order to buy some higher torque energy names. Wait before buying this.

HOLD

A very solid European super major. Good dividend and decent balance sheet. Oil being $50 a barrel makes things look sustainable longer-term. These are the type of companies that will be survivors. 5.6% dividend yield.

BUY

He likes it here. He likes the really large globally integrated players. They have been covering dividend with their earnings. The whole sector is coming to rationalization and renewable energy is becoming part of the market. He likes this sector.

TOP PICK

One of the world’s great oil/gas companies. An integrated company, so they are spilling off lots of free cash flow. They are poised to make acquisitions. Their 6.5% dividend is rock solid and secure, covered by existing cash flow, as is their capital expenditures. Incredibly well positioned to thrive in this environment, and buy up distressed assets.

PAST TOP PICK

(Top Pick Aug 18/14, Down 19.49%) It is only down 20% because their refining and marketing business is making a ton of cash flow and they are able to pay their 6% dividend. He feels they will proceed to make acquisitions.