Opinions

Gavin Graham TLC Laser Eye Centres TLC-T DON'T BUY Dec 13, 2004

Has been a pretty bumpy ride and still well down from where they were 4/5 years ago. The merger with OccuLogix seems to be a sensible deal. On a 4/5 year basis it is probably going to end up as one of the consolidators. Not sure they will make enough money to make it worthwhile.

Gavin Graham

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$12.750

Stock price when the opinion was issued

medical services

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TRADE

The chart looks like it's trying to form a base. Don't let it make a 52 week low on you. If there is an oil shock and rates go up, it could hurt.

DON'T BUY

Also owns a US company LCA Vision (LCAV-Q) and have been selling his TLC shares to buy LCA. Feels LCA is a better run company on the laser vision procedures.

WEAK BUY

Expensive. Model price is $13.08, so there is a discount and value. Trades at a high multiple to book. If they ever stumble it would sink like a stone.

SELL

Below its 200 day moving average and just recently hit a new low.

DON'T BUY

The real problem has been the irregularity of their earnings. Don't seem to have quarterly momentum in their financials. Increasing competition.

DON'T BUY

Doing very poorly against their US competitor LCA Vision (LCAV-Q). Also had problems with their subsidiary Occulogix when their clinical trial failed. Starting to get beaten up enough to maybe start paying attention to it.

WEAK BUY

His problem with the stock is that there is only one estimate, so the information given may not be that good. The model price shows as $9.90, a 65% positive differential. Be cautious

DON'T BUY

Doesn't see anything in the metrics that makes it appealing. Too risky. Has a lot of competition.

WATCH

May have reached its bottom in August. Check the volume from that point. In order to have a bottom, you want 3 X the average volume, a rally and then a correction. If it does not make a new low, that is your signal to buy.

DON'T BUY

This is on his Stock Watch list. Balance sheet is pretty dirty with a lot of debt. Company is trying to make major changes, but at this point the risk is far too great for him. Likes the field, which is a growing one.

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Gavin Graham TLC Laser Eye Centres TLC-T DON'T BUY Dec 13, 2004

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