Opinions
Cole Kachur
Transalta Corp
TA-T
WEAK BUY
May 01, 2024
Stock price when the opinion was issued
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Our PAST TOP PICK with TA has triggered its stop at $16. To remain disciplined, we recommend covering the position at this time. Combined with our previous guidance, this will result in a net investment gain of 46%.
He's looking at it. It's softened up considerably. Decent dividend payer, cut a few years ago but now back on track. High-quality company with share price having sold off. An opportunity, but he hasn't pulled the trigger yet.
Spike on chart due to strong earnings and a bunch of analysts giving it a "Buy". Got ahead of itself. Disappointment recently. He doesn't like buying at all-time highs, where there's often more downside than upside.
TA holds a basket of high-quality power generation facilities including renewables. The company is prudently using some cash reserves to aggressively retire debt and buy back shares. It trades at 21x earnings and supports a 25% ROE. We recommend setting a stop-loss at $9.50, looking to achieve $16.00 -- upside potential of 28%. Yield 1.9%
(Analysts’ price target is $18.33)Long a favourite of Stockchase Michael O'Reilly, this Alberta renewable energy company sank over 2% during April's tariff-induced slide. The sell-off helped to halve TA's PE of 40x from last September, and is now trading far lower than the industry's 33x. Even better, is the confident forward PE of 33.57x. Other qualities: a low beta of 0.55 and low payout ratio of 40% to support the 2.12% dividend yield. True, that yield lags its peers by 150 basis points or more, but TransAlta's ROE is 25.3%, towering over the sector's 8.97%. Anchored by strong free cash flows, the company is aggressively buying back shares as institutional shareholders own 67% of this stock. Lower interest rates are a tailwind for the entire sector
Utility-type companies should perform better once rates start to come down a bit, which hasn't started yet. Most downside has probably occurred, though could potentially retest. Value play, could pick away at these levels, not wild about it.