Stockchase Opinions

Brett Girard, CPA, CA, CFA Svenska Handelsbanken SVNLY-OTC HOLD Jan 13, 2020

Has an ADR? It's the best of the mediocre banks in Europe, all of which are challenged by low interest rates. He still likes it and would hold onto it. Yes, has an ADR.
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BUY

In his opinion, this is the best run bank in all of Europe. Nordics have the highest capital adequacy ratio of any banks globally. They went through a financial crisis in the 90s, and the regulator made them bring up their capital adequacy ratios to very high levels, so all we have to do is worry about them growing their business. This bank has a very strong network in Sweden, but has a good growth platform in the UK and Holland.

TOP PICK

He owns 3 banks. Toronto Dominion (TD-T) for North America, Svenska for Europe, and HDFC (HDB-N) for India. This avoids correlation risk. Svenska, is a Swedish bank and a little different in that head office doesn't make the decisions, the branch manager does. They have a steeple effect, where if you climb the steeple, everything you can see in 360° is your market. Very conservatively run. The dividend has been rising at roughly 10%-15%. Trading roughly 13.5X earnings. Dividend yield of 4.32%. (Analysts' price target is 117.73 SEK.)

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Jan 29/18, Down 3%) Still buying more. The second best performance among all Euro banks. European Banking sector is terrible now. Yields being so low. They are AA credit.
WAIT
Small regional bank, reasonably well operated. Wait to see what happens to the loan book fallout.
TOP PICK
European inflation's running at 10%, so net interest margins are going to improve. Loan loss provisions were 0 in the last quarter, so they have a good handle on risk. If you get net interest margin growth and higher interest rates in Europe, this is the place to go. (Price target in SEK.) Yield is 4.72%. (Analysts’ price target is $120.70)
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Dec 29/22, Up 11%)SHBA-STO

It pays a 5.5% dividend, so you don't need much share growth. They have the best credit rating in Europe, mostly exposed to northern Europe, not Italy, Spain and Greece. Conservative balance sheet. The central bank in Sweden raised rates, which raised the stock price, but like Canada, Sweden's economy relies heavily on real estate. So, there could be write-downs in the future. He'll stick with this.

BUY ON WEAKNESS

Best of the Nordic banks. Interesting way for Canadians to get exposure beyond NA. Also, it's not going to be correlated to a potential tariff war between Canada and the US.