Stockchase Opinions

Alice Tsang Southern Pacific Resource STP-T BUY ON WEAKNESS Sep 13, 2013

Rebounded significantly because of a very good update. Very strong team. Went into a heavy oil play, Senlac, to bring on production and were faced with a number of ramp up issues so the stock was severely punished. However, with yesterday’s update, it seems that they are starting to get back on track. Currently have 5 wells that are working so if they can continue to prove up all 12 wells, she believes stock will probably go back to the old range. Still a lot of risk in the story so she would wait for a pullback.

$0.550

Stock price when the opinion was issued

oil gas
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BUY

Junior oil sands play in western Canada. Riskier but a great balance sheet. It is cheap, but so is every other oil. You could buy something more senior and take the risk out of it but you will get more reward with this one.

COMMENT

Heavy oil bitumen producer and doesn’t have an upgrader or refinery. One of the 1st companies to arrange a rail deal to ship bitumen down to the Gulf Coast to increase their net backs. That wouldn’t matter if their production base was higher. Currently in the ramp-up phase for their McKay projects, which seems to be going as planned but you really don’t know 6-9 months out from when you start steaming your wells to know if the amount of steam you are getting is exactly going according to plan. Still in a moment of execution risk along with commodity risks. Just sold the last of his stocks.

BUY

(Market Call Minute.) This is great. Thinks it has a lot of growth.

WAIT

52 week low. He has been in and out of this stock. They had difficulties getting ramped up according to plan. Layers onto the differential problem. Missed expectations. Was built quite well, on time and on budget. He’d rather wait on the sidelines.

SELL

(Market Call Minute)

HOLD

Junior oil sands producer, producing 5000-6000 barrels per day. Had some challenges getting the heavy oil out of the ground. Recently inked a deal with a rail company to ship the oil down to the markets.

DON'T BUY

Have been having serious issues with their key SAGD asset. Production has not come anywhere remotely close to where management had guided. Have a lot of debt.

SELL

This is not the kind of risky situation he would want to be involved in. The Alberta landscape is littered with Junior companies that have made a run at building SAGD plants.

DON'T BUY

They were having significant reservoirs issues. In a very precarious position where there are very few options at their disposal.