Stockchase Opinions

Jennifer Radman SPDR S&P 500 ETF SPY-N DON'T BUY Jan 24, 2018

People were thinking there was going to be volatility in 2017, but markets literally went straight up. Now the forecast for 2018 is higher volatility, and we’ll have to see what happens. This is based on the entire market, but you have to remember the market is not just made up of one thing, it is made out of other pieces of businesses. She runs a very concentrated portfolio, which allows her to cherry pick the parts of the market that she thinks will do well, so she is not just in the broad market. Doesn't see how people can do well by owning a broad market.

$283.180

Stock price when the opinion was issued

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BUY
Today's session (a knee jerk bounce after Biden announced oil sanctions against Russia) signalled to her that if we get even a whiff of good news, that we'll see a giant rally. We're hungry for any kind of good news (out of Russia/Ukraine). She bought some SPY calls at the day's end.... If peace were announced tomorrow, she could see crude oil sliding by at least $25/barrel.
DON'T BUY
Not his favourite place to be. The Canadian market is better on a seasonal basis. Be careful of timing and wait for corrections.
DON'T BUY
She is handpicking stocks in this bear market. Choose individual stocks. It's hard work--read the reports and listen to the calls, but it pays off. Don't buy the SPY, but would own the stocks in that ETF.
COMMENT
put buying SPY put buys: 30,000 of the July 377 puts, and 100,000 of the June 345 puts, and 18,000 of the July 22 expiring 385 puts. This action may not be over just yet, because there's still a lot of buying.
BUY

It's been beaten down, but healthcare will do well.

BUY
SPY vs. QQQ

SPY is more diversified than QQQ, which is mainly technology, biotech, and some consumer names. SPY is 26% technology, 8% communications. Tech sector has gotten ahead of itself again, and the valuations are not that attractive.

BUY

He just bought May 500 puts. In the two days since the Fed meeting, the USD has strengthened against many currencies (Euro, Yen, UK pound, Chinese yuan). Ripples in the currency market will lead to a slight pullback in the S&P.

BUY

He did a put spread on May 2, the 500-520 end of July put spread. He wasn't concerned about NVDA or tech, but to the market's reaction broadly to Nividia's earnings. Rally broadening in the S&P had not happened. You're limiting your downside with a spread. He bought back the 500 put, which leads him long only the 599 outs.

BUY

SPY is the oldest and the biggest. Buy more, hold forever. Starting to be overtaken by VOO, perhaps because of the slight difference in MER cost. Worthwhile contacting the ETF company itself for a tax opinion on which account is best to hold it in.