Opinions
Paul Tepsich
Sherritt International Corp.
S-T
COMMENT
Apr 25, 2016
$0.910
Stock price when the opinion was issued
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This is a zero, although not priced there yet. That is where it is going. It has been a lousy company for a long time. Madagascar will prove to be their undoing. They defaulted on their debt in February. Their debt is currently worth 54 cents on the dollar so the stock is worth zero.
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RISKY
Trevor Rose’s Insights - Trevor’s most-liked answers from 5i Research
It is certainly not beyond possibility. Bloomberg default ratio is 7.36%, which is very high for that indicator. Cash flow was negative in the last quarter, yet 12-month interest expenses were $36.1M net. With its small size and Cuban and other issues, we are not sure it could raise a lot of money with a dilutive equity issue. Most debt matures in 2026. Certainly any investment here needs to be considered extremely risky.
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For 3 to 5 years? A very interesting company. Not overly diversified and sitting on a fairly good chunk of cash. Has some assets, nickel mining and oil/gas and power, in Cuba which have been phenomenal. Has fallen down on its nickel mine in Madagascar. The CapX, which is mostly behind them right now, has kind of blown their brains out. They have 3 bonds outstanding, 2018, 2020 and 2022, and are trading at roughly $.50 on the dollar, very, very distressed with a high yield. They are in a position where they could, and should, buy back debt in the open market. If the nickel market turned around, this has a lot of leverage to nickel.