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Pembina Pipeline CorpPPL.TOBUY ON WEAKNESSAug 18, 2020Stock price when the opinion was issued
As of Oct 09, 2026. Market Open.
Exposure to the 4 horsemen of Western Canadian growth: gas, LNG, condensate, and crude. Partnership with META. Heartland Extraction Plant should see more volumes. Leverage to the pipeline going west out of Alberta. Exposure to Cedar LNG facility under construction.
Low double-digit internal growth, plus dividend yield, gives you ~15% annual compound return. Yield is 4.65%.
They will benefit from the long-term investments that Canadian government is making in Western Canada, like growing oil and natural gas production (LNG Canada). They have a good track record of completing projects on time and on budget. Always a good dividend payer, now at 4.5%. The midstreams are a safe way to play ongoing production in Western Canada.
There are some overhangs on deals with KKR and Apollo but it is well run and has the best growth prospects of similar companies. The coming increase of LNG is good for Pembina as the Canadian infrastructure gets larger. Even at higher prices today it is showing strength.
A name for a good dividend and safety. Pipelines are not quite as good as utilities, because they're perceived as being commodity-sensitive (even though they're really not).
You'll get your dividend, and the safety means you can sleep at night (and that's worth something). You can get diversification via funds and ETFs.
It had a lot of growth ahead, then the pandemic threw that into question. It's waiting on the future demand for energy and pipelines. The monthly dividend is safe as long as contracted players continue to pay, but the risk is in those contracts voiding and defaulting. This applies to peers like Keyera. PPL is more diversified and bigger vs. its peers. He's picking away at it, but this is a volatile space. Oil stocks are grinding higher, though, as the WTI price keeps rising and shale oil is not coming back and Canadian production is flatlining. Buy at low-$30/high-$20s. Hold at mid-$30s and hope things will normalize.