Stockchase Opinions

Robert Lauzon Parallel Energy Trust PLT.UN-T WATCH May 09, 2011

Didn't participate in the IPO. Will wait for a couple of quarters. Their production is in Texas in an area that hasn't been drilled much in the last few years and he would like to see what the real decline rates are. Good yield of 8.6%.
$10.750

Stock price when the opinion was issued

0
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TOP PICK
Jurisdiction is solely in the US, which is why it can be an income trust. Trading at just about its NAV. Has the ability to grow its reserves next year by about 10%-12%. Yield of 12%-13%.
BUY
Need to wait for it to come back up. Take a small position it might be worthwhile, get out if it drops below the $6.70.
HOLD
This is a smaller trust. Seems like a structure that is going to survive. Decent yield at 12.6%. His preference would be to be in the larger cap names where we are going to go into a period of uncertainty in the market. Will probably experienced more volatility than a larger trust.
PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Dec 20/11. Down 42.21%.) Had a high level of income and he was positive on the commodity. A lot of their production was in the natural gas liquids sector, which fell out of favour. Probably lost about 10% of his investment.

COMMENT

(Market Call Minute.) If you are strictly interested in the 14.85% dividend, it is highly sustainable. Limited upside for growth but good yield.

WATCH

Natural gas & liquids. It has been under a lot of pressure. The balance sheet is probably a little too stretched here. You will see companies like this spend a lot of energy in trying to reduce leverage on the balance sheet. They should have 1-1/2 to 2 times revenue to cash flow.

COMMENT

It comes down to the formation. You have to understand how they are generating the distributions. He met with management to understand. He feels it is high. They produce a lot of natural gas with propane. They are in the US so we have to look at prices for propane in the US. He prefers Canadian companies with Canadian formations that he can understand.

PARTIAL BUY

A cross boarder trust – Canadian listing with US assets. Their assets have a very low decline rate. You spend less money on the asset each year. So it is okay to lever up the asset more than you would in Canada. Likes their exposure to the propane industry. The US are expanding the export capacity. The Panama Canal is expanding to accommodate bigger ships such as ones carrying propane. Pay attention to the propane market. Take comfort in the dividend(16%), but don`t go in head over heels. We are starting to see more research into the name. Nibble a bit on it.