Stock price when the opinion was issued
He's bullish on nat gas, with the proviso that it depends on the weather (always the Achilles heel). Lots of positives: AI, data centres, US doubling LNG export capacity between now and 2030. Really good acquisition recently -- a natural fit, bringing down costs, hedged price of nat gas.
Trades at material discount to US peers. Several decades of inventory. Not as torquey as other names. Yield is 7.8%, happy to earn in his income fund and write calls on it.
Will benefit along with others from LNG Canada. But it's dry gas, so not as much optionality. Lowest-cost producer around. Has no issues with the name, but depends what you're looking for. Other names she likes more.
She owns ARX, which is more wet gas. You get the NGL plus the condensate. Long reserve life of assets.
EPS of 39c slightly beat estimates; revenue of $310M was 1% short of estimates. EBITDA of $502M was much higher than expected. Capex is still seen at $450M to $500M. Production of 133,426 b/d beat estimates of 132,943 b/d. Production rose 11%. Consensus calls for very good growth in 2025 as natural gas prices have already improved nicely. We are comfortable with the numbers and the stock remains very cheap.
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The whole sector has sold off all this year. Feels this one has been punished because of the overall sector selling off, as opposed to anything they may be doing. The company is really well run. They’ve done a great job in a number of different areas. They aren’t buying a lot of land, but seem to be able to continue to drill and find good opportunities on their own properties. Because of that, their development and finding costs are really low, especially compared to a lot of other companies. The company has a really strong hedging policy, and hedge about 50% of their production. If you are a longer-term investor, this is probably one of the best, well-run gas companies in Canada.