PepsiCoPEPCOMMENTFeb 27, 2015Stock price when the opinion was issued
As of Jun 08, 2026. Market Open.
He sold in 2024 when the valuation started looking a bit full. When pandemic inflation hit, "elasticity" was low so that consumers kept buying despite higher prices. Cumulative effect of inflation caught up to them. Not tempted, given slowing macro economy and inflation genie not fully back in the bottle.
Operates in a cola duopoly with KO, good job creating shareholder value. He likes market leaders like these that have little to no direct competition, so this name fits that bill. That being said, it's a lot harder these days with consumer brands to establish a brand and build a moat. Today he could launch a cola company online, using Instagram and FB, with very little cost and effort, and with luck it could even go viral. Brands will have a tough time.
Very strong, well-established brand. PEP got into snacks, which are up against healthier lifestyles. He owns FEVR, take a look at that one.
Historic growth story of Pepsi was the Frito-Lay franchise. Not the growth company it was. Still trades at a reasonably high multiple for its growth rate. International sources of revenue, so the strong USD is a major headwind.
Companies in the snack space have traded off on the fears of GLP-1. Volumes are starting to drop. Growth metrics just don't support the valuations.
Pepsi (PEP-N) or Coke (KO-N)? Year-over-year carbonated beverage sales are down about 9%, which doesn’t bode well for either of name. To combat that they have diversified away by making acquisitions. He thinks this one has done a better job as 50% of their revenues come from noncarbonated drinks. His preference is Dr Pepper Snapple (DPS-N) which has Canada Dry, Crush, A & W Root Beer. This has very little market share outside of North America and their more specific target is into Mexico, the highest soda consumption capital globally. They are gaining traction there.