Oracle (ORCL)

They reported disappointing earnings on Wednesday, then got hit by a negative Bloomberg report last Friday about delayed data centre openings. Shares have been falling since September because they have a lot of business with openAI that Wall Street isn't sure about. Oracle has been spending a lot building data centres and the street doesn't know if this can continue. Peers have better balance sheets. Oracle holds a lot of debt and has negative cash flow.

The market feels Oracle can't access the money it needs to continue its incredible build-out. Today, Oracle denied that their data centre buildout will be delayed, but investors didn't listen.

The options market suggests a 9% move for Oracle, but 6% for Broadcom. Oracle has to address their capex---will they do a $35 billion private debt deal which will add to their existing debt? Can enter at $185. Broadcom has more opportunity, given more customers for their chips and their existing relationship with Alphabet. Their PE is a little high, but they will benefit from a pivot away from Nvidia to other chips. AVGO has a tremendous growth opportunity, currently at only 9% of market share vs. NVDA's dominance if there is a market pivot, which he feels is happening.

Pretty volatile chart over the last year. Definitely a buy here. Borrowed a lot for its AI investments, but it'll work through all that. People will look back and see it as a great buying opportunity. Whole suite (much like MSFT) that will just balloon next year.

It's giving him a ton of pause. It has a lot of doubt around it. He's looking for an opportunity to get back into it after selling 50% of his stake last October. But there's too much smoke here to add anything now.

It looks like a falling knife, but is rallying 4% today. So, now it's a low-risk trade; stop out at $185. A buying opportunity now.

Their debt is the concern. Now, is an interesting time to enter. Let's see if they hit their openAI commitments. Under their CEO, he thinks they can succeed.

They build data centres better than anyone. It doesn't live or die depending on AI, though it is taking on a lot of debt. ChapGPT is their biggest business partner. He wouldn't write off either company in the face of Google's (and Broadcom's) current success with Gemini 3, but any company depending on ChatGPT is suddenly more precarious.

He's long Oracle, but isn't pleased with that. Doesn't like Oracle's debt. Many were long Oracle because of momentum.

If it doesn't show positive cash flow in a few years and will return to the net marks (again) in 2029-30... He likes it, but don't put all your eggs in one basket. Tech stocks like Oracle more speculative than, say, Google.

Doesn't like their cash flow or borrowing situation.

Really surged in Sept/Oct based on strong cloud contract wins. Stock's now reverted back to 200-day MA (it's just above right now). Will grow ~15-18%, paying ~30x PE (not cheap, but not expensive compared to some of the fringe names in the space). 

Don't sell here, might bounce off the 200-day. Plus, the tech markets are having a bit of trouble this week. RSI is oversold at 26%, so it's not the time to sell.

Gentle uptrend, then parabolic, but now in an uptrend again.

Debt to equity is roughly 3.9X and interest coverage is 5X. The company has carried higher debt loads in the pat and we would not be too concerned about the debt here. Gross margins at the business are in the 65% range and net margins are in the 15% to 20% range, so we don't think margins are overly concerning either and there is some 'wiggle room' to take on higher growth, lower margin businesses as well, while still having a healthy margin profile. 
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