Opti Canada Inc. (OPC.TO) Buy, Sell or Hold

Opti Canada Inc. (OPC.TO)

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BUY

A heavy oil producer. Own 50% of the Long Lake project in the oil sands. Has some unique technology that allows them to use their own gas, a by-product of the refining process, to produce heat for their production.

DON'T BUY

An oil sands player that, instead of using natural gas, they will burn the crud that comes out of the oil sands. They have the rights for Canada. It has to be shown that it works. Not Conservative enough for his funds.

WAIT

Fairly valued at this point. It has to prove its SAGD technology that it’s known for. Needs to be better known as a technology entity.

BUY

An interesting story. They have partners to help build out the oil sands. You need to own an oil sands play. Should be a major player. Not cheap, but none of these oil sands are. Buy for the long-term.

BUY

They use a gasification process by creating gases out of the bituman, and uses this gas to create steam to get SAG (steam assisted gravity) which takes the costs down substantially. Very unique in the oil patch.

DON'T BUY

Fairly hard to calculate a FMV for the company, so doesn't own. Would be considered as a speculation as opposed to an investment as a result of this.

BUY

If you are a believer in oil/gas and strong commodity prices, this is one way to play the oil sands. Higher risks as they are just in the process of developing.

TOP PICK

Oil Sands is a great long term value. $30 is the worst you are going to see oil, but will most likely be $40/50. The project with Nexen is starting to come on. Trading at a good discount to its net asset value. You can buy and put it away for the long term.

DON'T BUY

Doing a joint project with Nexen. Looks fine, but feels from a valuation perspective looks a little bit expensive.

BUY ON WEAKNESS

In partnership with Nexun in the oil sands and have a way of extracting without having to rely on natural gas. Still have to execute the plan, come in on time and execute the budget.

DON'T BUY

Was fully priced when it came out during a frothy period and has now dropped. Likes the basic project. Expected to produce about 70,00 barrels a day. Generates its own gas. Will probably be fairly quiet for the next couple of years.

TOP PICK

One of the next, hopefully, great oil sands companies. A very good price.

DON'T BUY

Has a 50/50 joint venture with Nexen (NXY-T). This is an “over the horizon” earnings. Heavy oil. You are trying to buy future earnings before things are really functioning. Higher risk.

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Opti Canada Inc. (OPC.TO)