Chris Blumas Nutrien Ltd. NTR-T DON'T BUY Jun 18, 2024

Definitely putting in a major low. Highlighting this quite frequently to clients over the last couple of months. His fundamental analyst is highlighting this as well. Broke the bigger multi-year downtrend from 2022. Lots of institutional buying. Its peer in the States, MOS, is showing the same pattern.

Within the chemicals space, the fertilizer stocks are much more interesting and have a better technical setup. Recently bought this name. Commodity-oriented space is continuing to firm up. Very long-term base going back to 2016 is being tested, with higher lows.

(A Top Pick May 22/25, Up 0.45%)

Commodities in coming years should outperform financial assets. Look at gold and uranium. He likes potash. The chart was terrible for a long time, then based, and is recently breaking out.

Bumpy. Q2 is a crucial selling season for them, and supply/demand dynamics in potash will be key. Reintroduced it to portfolios in January this year. Fertilizer cycle has bottomed and is slowly turning up. Vertically integrated with downstream farm supply stores. Operational improvement in South America to improve margins.

Trading at half of peak value of 3 years ago. Lots of upside.

Same play as ADM: has been reversing a long-term downtrend and recently has been moving up. Investors who had ignored this are now coming back.

Should be affected by tariffs, but it's actually not because of its Canadian and US standalone businesses. Inexpensive. Capital intensive, so the rate of return is not as high as he'd like. Agriculture seems to be working its way out of a funk.

Likes it, as well as its US counterpart MOS. Part of his bias toward commodities. Downtrend ended, rounded bottom, now forming a neckline. Trying to break out; hasn't yet, but chart and fundamentals are set up to do so. Could get quite a bit higher, but you have to be patient (it's a commodity, and there's a cycle at work).

World's largest crop nutrient business. Upstream production vertically integrated with downstream stores (in US, Canada, and some in South America). Commodity prices for the 3 fertilizer ingredients has bottomed, supported by steadily improving prices for major cash crops (corn, wheat, soybeans). 

Trades roughly at long-term average multiple. Earnings on cusp of a turning point. Dividend's increased 36% since merger in 2018, plus reduced outstanding shares by 23% since then. Yield 3.6%.

Is fairly valued. Has returned 59% over 5 years. The problem is that if the fertilizer price gets too high, farmers delay buying it. The PE is reasonable, though. It's had a good run the past 12 months.

The 3-year chart shows the longer-term down trend and how it's now beginning to come out. Pulling back recently. Around $75 will be pretty important support. Technicals show it's turned a corner. Doesn't mind nibbling here.