Niko ResourcesNKO.TOTOP PICKSep 25, 2012Stock price when the opinion was issued
This has been a pack of cards falling through. There is kind of an option value building into this company because of its whole macroeconomic play with its geographic location close to some of the basins in India. Fundamentally the balance sheet looks really stretched. They would need a lot of help on the capital markets side in terms of financing alternatives. Trades at a Price to Book of about 6 times.
He would stay away from this. Highly speculative because there is so much debt. There is talk that after the election in India, there will be a price increase in the gas that this company and their partner get out of the D6 block. Not sure that will happen. If they don’t get that price increase, this equity will probably not be around in 2 years.
(Top Pick May 21/13, Down 62%) The big problem is that they were supposed to get a price increase in India that would allow an increase in production. The problem was that there was an election going on so they removed the price increase for the election. They have started selling non-core assets. He thinks they will do other deals. Once they resolve balance sheet issues, the story will wake up. Wait for the politics to resolve and cash flow to go up.
Has been hit very hard, partially because of the issues with India as well as having a convertible debt that matures at the end of 2012. Trading very cheaply based on the Indian assets. There is much upside in the Indian assets with BP (BP-N) and Reliance as their partners. BP has been very positive on the global potential of the upside. Need to get a deal with the government on higher pricing. Also, have a large amount of land that they will be drilling next month in Indonesia. (Buy a half weighted position now and take advantage of any market malaise in Nov/Dec to go to full position status on any weakness.)