Stockchase Opinions

Jim Cramer - Mad Money Netflix Inc. NFLX-Q BUY Mar 24, 2025

technical analysis by Bob Lang

He and Lang suggests consumer-oriented stocks with a subscription base that work even in a slowdown: Netflix, Roku and Spotify. Last January, NFLX reported a super quarter, then shares gapped up, but rolled over mid-February with the market. Lang says that was a reset. Shares have been rebounding ever since, now 9% this year. NFLX has resistance at $1,000, but if it breaks that, Lang thinks it can reach $1,250. A momentum indicator--MACD--recently made a bullish crossover. Meanwhile, the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) is slightly bullish; big buyers are still buying. RSI is starting to bounce after hitting oversold earlier this month, now around 50, so there's a ways to go before being overbought.

$971.990

Stock price when the opinion was issued

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BUY

It recorded a great quarter last week and last January, but hasn't been immune from this ugly market. But it has made up its recent losses and it up 10.84% this year. They reported a solid revenue beat and monster earnings beat. Also, they didn't sound nervous about the future or the economy. but gave strong guidance for this quarter and reiterated their full-year.

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Apr 11/24, Up 72%)

Impressed by last week's quarterly results. Cracking down on password sharing is generating more revenue. Innovating by launching ad-supported versions. Geographic expansion. Aggressive investment in content. Has become a big free cashflow story.

Officially classified as a consumer discretionary stock, but he considers it more akin to a utility. A relatively inexpensive indulgence for the value it offers. Difficult macro headwinds would have minimal impact.

PARTIAL SELL
To an existing shareholder

Take out your cost basis (take some profits) and let it run.

PARTIAL BUY
Wants to buy it, but shares keep going up

Then buy a piece of it, a little, then buy more if it goes down. NFLX may be the best-growing stock in the market.

HOLD

Meets a lot of his criteria but one -- it's not actually a capital-light business. Spends a lot on developing new content. A compounder. Well, and frugally, run. Investors would do well to read about the culture and the CEO. Dominates the space, market leader. Quite a bit of direct competition.

If you got in at favourable prices, stick with it. Strong company. One of the biggest mistakes investors make is that they "interrupt compounding unnecessarily" (paraphrased from Charlie Munger).

BUY

The price target was raised today. Is up 36% this year. It's a permanent compounder. They still own the streaming space, are #1. Looks great. Has so many tailwinds. Is recession resistant.

COMMENT

Is the leader in streaming. But you have to be a little wary of film accounting--you put the cash out front, but accountants will amortize that cost over time. So, earnings don't really reflect the true cash impact on an expanding portfolio of new releases. For a long time, NFLX was challenged on a cost basis, nor producing free cash. This is past and are now producing free cash.

WEAK BUY

They won the streaming wars already. RSI is 62, so not overbought. Is 3% below all-time highs. It's possible they could add user-generated content like YouTube. Don't expect this to perform as well as it has.

BUY

Was upgraded today. Up 38% this year. Operating margins were up 32% last quarter and EPS +25%. However, US growth was only 9%. So, there's lots of room to run internationally. Continues to like it. Expenses will this quarter though will content to come.

BUY ON WEAKNESS

They will be the internet channel for the world. Is worth $542 billion. Don't double down because you might get an intra-day swing when you can buy. Is one of the best run companies in the world.