Rob Lauzon Micron Technology MU-Q TRADE Mar 25, 2024

A long shot, at a much cheaper valuation from the group. Held back because memory tends to be a bit volatile on the chip side. Less risk on the trade side. More memory being built into data centres.

It reports Wednesday. It had a nice rally today. He hopes they tell a positive story about all their chips, not just the high bandwidth ones.

MU is a trade, not an investment. They design and make chips. The DRAM is its biggest product; but memory chips like this are highly cyclical with changing demand. He sold MU last summer.

12-month price target of $128.70, clear runway. Cyclical. When out of favour, that can last for quite a while. AI revolution gives quite an appetite for its products.

Their high bandwidth business is on fire. Shares have fallen far and look attractive. Sees little downside.

Impacted not only by tariff rhetoric, but also because it's a very cyclical business. 12-month price target of $118.50, but with a lot of volatility in between. If you're underwater right now, write some calls; if it starts to approach the strike price, and you don't want to get called away, just roll the strike price up.

Hyper-cyclical earnings. Storage and memory chips, which are like a commodity and so you have big swings. Consensus is for earnings to grow over 400% this year, not because of innovation but because of the demand cycle. Go back 10 years and this name has generated a total compound return of 10%, which is less than the S&P. Beta is 1.9.

Is merely okay after a couple of mediocre quarters. Is no catalyst to raise this higher.

The market and Micron are getting toppy. This can go down to $80, no problem. This is a trade, not investment.