Stock price when the opinion was issued
Shares are back to July 2024. Will this be closer to $300 or $500? The easy answer is $500. $300 would mean a lot of fundamental concerns on the macro side of the market. Look for guidance ahead. Are they still on schedule to spend $13 billion this year? And what will they get in return for that? Their last Q4 revealed that their AI business surprisingly surpassed their revenue run rate of $13 billion, which was a lot sooner. Companies like this are spending alot, but they are making money back in AI.
Its PE sank to 34.4x after that report, close to its median average of 33.94x. Its quarter was far from a disaster, so the sell-off was an over-reaction. Year-over-year earnings actually rose 10% and sales 16%, while Azure revenues jumped 32%. MSFT pays a 0.77% dividend, so you're not buying this for income. This is one to hold long term.