Microsoft CorpMSFTHOLDOct 23, 2024Stock price when the opinion was issued
As of Nov 06, 2026. Market Open.
It's one of the five biggest spenders in capex on data centres. If was the only to say it would trim spending. It had the best report of the three megacaps that reported this week, beating revenues and earnings while Google and Amazon missed both. Azure grew 48% and cash flow was positive. Capex spending for the quarter was much lower than expectations. Their spending will accelerate in the second half of fiscal 2027.
He can't believe the market pushed this down to $400. The story then was that MSFT had too much tied to OpenAI, and that AI would disrupt their software business, Narratives change. MSFT is growing top and bottom line at a huge rate. He's own this since 2012. They will continue to see big earnings growth and deliver enormous free cash flow. Once the data centres are built, the hyperscalers will be the big winners.
He wouldn't but today, but neither would he sell. So much of investing is buying at the right price, and then letting things work. Valuation's a bit rich. Look to add on a pullback. Well positioned on AI. Well diversified. Great balance sheet, lots of cashflow. Important that some of these companies can do massive capex, but not be FCF-negative.
The dilemma that professional money managers go through every day! If you sell a small portion of a winner, you win whether the stock goes up or down. If you sell 15% of your stake, and it continues to go up, you still have a lot. But if it goes down, you can pat yourself on the back for being so smart (and now you can buy it back).
One of his top 5. His 12-month price target is $491, so still about 20% upside. Has been dead money over the last couple of months, as the rest of the market's taken off. So many horses in the race, from software to hardware to cloud to cross-selling. Its Maia AI chip is very competitive. If it got north of $450, that's where he'd take 10-15% off.