Opinions Brad Gerstner, founder & CEO, Altimeter Capital
Microsoft CorpMSFTBUY ON WEAKNESSMay 05, 2025
Stock price when the opinion was issued
As of Jun 26, 2026. Market Open.
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Down 25% this year though the QQQ is up 15% because the chip stocks have become a bigger weighting. MSFT is not executing and pivoting on a daily basis. Co-Pilot has gone from openAI to Anthropic and now Deep Seek. MSFT is still figuring it out. Co-Pilot is still not great.
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Premium contentOur PAST TOP PICK with MSFT has triggered its stop at $360. To remain disciplined, we recommend covering the position at this time. When combined with previous guidance, this will result in a net investment loss of 11%.
Very much likes. The 800-pound gorilla since he was a boy ;) Manages to morph and adapt, even when it makes a mistake (like missing the entire internet in the 1990s). Still has the bandwidth to expand and take over a sector.
Brendan CaldwellIt's fallen a fair bit recently over concerns of their spending and them having software in the time of AI. He doesn't expect AI to replace their software. Trades at 18x PE. It's underestimated now like Google was last year.
(Analysts’ price target is $561.39)
Paul Harris, CFAThe lower MSFT gets, the more he likes it. The valuation keeps falling. He recently bought a position and would add to it now. If it holds, that's a very good technical signal. He loves MSFT, but consider that France will forbid the government using Microsoft Teams. That said, MSFT isn't going anywhere.
Premium contentIn the last quarter, the company reported 4.27 USD per share, beating the 4.06 USD estimate by 5.18%. Revenue for the same period reached 82.89 B USD, despite the estimate of 81.44 B USD. For the next quarter, analysts expect 4.24 USD in earnings per share and 87.61 B USD in revenue. Social media mentions are up 109% in the past 24h.
His preference is MSFT, and he'd buy today. Valuation is ~20x PE -- very fair valuation for business with good outlook for earnings growth for next 3-5 years. A bit more value than AMZN right now. Business model supports a better compounding over the long run, and generates significantly more FCF. Late to the AI race, and that's the reason for the selloff.
No issues with AMZN. Very well run, targeting new markets. You can't own all the tech companies, so you have to pick your spots.
Chris BlumasHurt by worries of software and of cloud growth slowing. Copilot AI project not loved. Tied itself to OpenAI, which seems to be losing a bit of steam to Gemini and Anthropic. Trading at only 22x forward PE. Better value today than in quite a while.
John Zechner
There are legitimate concerns of the AI product being lesser than others, as well as the software component. Its collaboration with Open AI has caused it to fall behind others in the race. However it recently re-negotiated a deal with Open AI to explore other avenues which should open things up for Microsoft. The Azure cloud offering is growing at 40% plus, and its software offerings eg Windows, etc. are a perfect launching pad for an AI application. It is 30 % off its highs. Buy 68 Hold 3 Sell 1
(Analysts’ price target is $561.39)
Gordon Reid
He has been buying tech during this dip, in April particularly. We will eventually exit this volatility and find stability and confidence in the market again. Meta and Microsoft are some of his key holdings, and they affirmed their capex guidance--they are spending to make incredible investments over the next three years, because they know AI is the biggest super-cycle every in technology. There is incredible pent-up demand for AI from businesses and consumers. The CEO of MSFT reported that his company processed 50 trillion tokens last month alone, or 3.5 million years of AI conversation.