Stockchase Opinions

Michelle Calpin Merck & Company MRK-N DON'T BUY Apr 22, 2002

Very reasonable valuation. Patents are coming off. Prefers Pfizer.
$56.520

Stock price when the opinion was issued

biotechnology pharmaceutical
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BUY

It reports Tuesday. Despite acquisitions, MRK remains about their drug Keytruda, the cancer treatment, that keeps working. He beats numbers will be good, but he wants to hear about these acquisitions.

BUY
Tariff-proof stock?

Certainly some stocks are less vulnerable to issues involving tariffs. What comes to mind are healthcare companies. You could look at some of the beaten-down companies that really didn't do well last year, as they're doing quite well today. Try this name, which he owns.

BUY

Is now too cheap. Pays a 3.4% dividend. New acquisitions will pay off. There's too much worry over the Keytuda off-patent.

BUY ON WEAKNESS

Likes he CEO and company, though the company is hung up on Keytruda is the only big drug they have. He likes the stock at this level.

HOLD

Whole healthcare complex was weak in 2023 and 2024, so the valuations were reasonable coming into 2025. Current market downtrend plus today's threat of tariffs on pharmaceuticals, and we don't know how this will all end. Drug pipeline is particularly exciting.

Can't tell you when it will turn the corner, but it's a good component of a diversified portfolio.

HOLD

It's become a nightmare, down 17.6% this year, but collect the 4% dividend and stay the course.

WEAK BUY

Keytruda is now a decade old, and a lot more competition has come on. Great company. You could probably buy here, but see his Top Picks.

BUY

Pharmas have not done well. MRK trades at 8x PE. They have one large drug, Keytruda, which makes up 46% of their revenues, which is risky. The chart looks terrible. But MRK has dozens of drugs in phase 2 and 3 trials. Also, this pays a fine dividend. Now is a fine time to enter this.

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Jan 27/25, Down 16%)

Bought is heavily this morning. Is a diversified, large-cap pharma with 45% of revenue is oncology. Keytruda goes off patent in 2028, so there's a race to offset that patent. Vaccines face issues--Gardisil isn't performing in China, and RFK Jr. is anti-vaccines. However, if they combine an enzyme with a drug like Keytruda, does that reset the patent? Does the patent continue? That is in debate.

BUY

Whole sector's been problematic, so this name could be just caught up in that downdraft. Fundamentally looks pretty good. Could be an opportunity. ROC last few years has been 7%, 9%, 9%, 10%, 11%. Nothing wrong with those numbers. Pretty clean balance sheet, decent working capital position.

Revenue growth last quarter down 1.6%. Before that, it usually ran around a positive 6-7%. Yield is 3.9%, chart looks great as they keep bumping it up once a year -- cashflow and payout ratio to support that look really healthy.