Stockchase Opinions

Rick Stuchberry Magna Int'l. (A) MG-T SELL ON STRENGTH Jan 21, 2019

The December period was bad in that the bottom fell out. We have electrification and lots of other things happen in the next decade. He would let it try to rally for you and sell into strength.
$67.000

Stock price when the opinion was issued

Automotive
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DON'T BUY
Negative impact from US tariffs.

The names on this list are plenty. Start with the industrials, for instance. He's a big fan of BBD.B, but they make everything here in Canada.

An aerospace name like CAE, the rails, auto components like LNR and MG.

COMMENT

It has been lowering guidelines and the sector is not great with auto parts companies being impacted by tariffs. He likes Linamar better. It is cheaper and more diversified with an industrial side, and would be less impacted by tariffs.

DON'T BUY

25% tariffs on auto parts would be terrible for this name, life-changing. Valuation very attractive. Always very profitable, great management. Capital intensive and low ROIC, so he doesn't like this type of business.

COMMENT

Trades on the TSX, and has major global operations. But impacted so much by what happens with trade.

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Jul 05/24, Down 4%)

Most of the drop has to do with the tariff situation. Recent numbers were really good, great balance sheet, amazing footprint, global manufacturing powerhouse. Nice dividend.

WAIT

Not the right time. Big exposure to tariffs. Business is capital intensive and highly competitive. Not a compounder. News on tariffs is so volatile and unpredictable.

BUY

His preference in the space. Very well integrated into the major auto companies, as they can't live without Magna at all. Profitable, makes money every year. Buy it when things look awful.

WEAK BUY

It won't pull back much from here. Given tariffs, this space is uncertain, but eventually we will settle this tariff war. Auto manufacturing is so emeshed between both countries that it would take a very long time to rejig it. This or Linamar are fine, but Magna pays a higher PE, though trades at a higher price-to-book. Your horizon must be long to own this, like 3-4 years.

HOLD

Will be affected by tariffs. Cyclical business, with 5-6% operating margins over time. Eventually, the multiple will rerate. Owns now, but not sure he will 5 years from now once the cycle plays out.

DON'T BUY

Very hesitant. Recent recovery has been sharp and quick, almost as though it's factoring in abolition of tariffs completely. We need more clarity on tariffs. Auto industry is highly cyclical and depends on health of the economy, and we're seeing signs of weakening.

If you own it, don't need the cash, and have a 5-10 year time horizon, you should be fine. But there could be further weakness from here.