Stockchase Opinions

John Kim Manulife Financial MFC-T HOLD Jun 21, 2019

Why is it flat despite impressive metrics? Yes, he's frustrated too. Why is it flat? MFC remains a show-me story. MFC needs to right the ship in annuities. True, Asia is their growth engine, but MFC needs a higher yield curve; rates are flat or lowering. So, this hurts all lifecos as well as banks. That said, MFC pays a good dividend and it's cheap, so he continues to hold it. Over time, investors will get rewarded, but until then, you will be rewarded by that dividend. MFC is pushing its investment service. Also, they will bring their asset management expertise in India in a new joint venture and this will let them pick up more assets to manage and develop into a new growth engine in the next 20 years.
$23.850

Stock price when the opinion was issued

insurance
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HOLD

Operations in Hong Kong are an area of growth. China's autocratic economy is a risk. Its business involves local services, so shouldn't be affected by tariffs. Risk is animosity curtailing demand; but MFC is also Canadian, not just US. Slower economic growth will impact all companies, including life insurers. Tends to be more defensive; she's sticking with Canadian banks rather than lifecos.

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick May 15/24, Up 23%)

Insurance companies have been better insulated from tariffs. Interest rates going up would help them. Really nice beat on Q4, really clean earnings (uncharacteristic after the last 20 years). Growing 12%, trading at 8.2x. Yield is 4%, growing ~8% a year. Asset sales. 

Could still be a Top Pick in an environment like this.

BUY

They've repositioned themselves in good growth areas. Maybe questions about their exposure to Asia (so does SLF-T), but Asia offers good growth potential. No problem this being a core holding.

DON'T BUY

Fairly insulated from tariffs, it's more the economic exposure that is a risk. As markets get more volatile, revenue from its asset management side will go down if markets go down. Between MFC, SLF and GWO, he'd pick GWO.

DON'T BUY
Why doesn't it get more traction?

The insurance business, in general, is not expanding dramatically. You get the nice dividend, which means they're not investing in the business. And they don't invest in the business because there's really nowhere to put their money for a high ROIC. Highly regulated, higher interest rates have a negative impact.

For him, the dividend is not a reason to buy things. Doing a good job, but there are better places to invest in financial services.

BUY

Pays a good yield and all the insurers are doing well.

TOP PICK

Doesn't believe Asian exposure is affected by US-China issues. Would only be affected secondarily if economy started to slow and people had less money in general. 

Nice recent beat. Still has momentum in Asia. Wealth management earnings were up 8%, even after the $43M charge on California wildfires. At 9.7x PE for 2026, still cheaper than Canadian banks and than SLF and GWO. Reasonable 10% growth rate. Lowest payout ratio among peers. Another "when", not "if", story. Yield is 4.02%, with nice growth.

(Analysts’ price target is $47.93)
BUY

Look to this name for income, not for growth. Solid dividend yield, north of 5%. Some growth over time. Reasonable valuation, around 10x PE. Growing in Asia. His favourite in the space is GWO.

HOLD

Has done well this past year. Decent income stock. In the financial services sector right now, her preference is the Canadian banks. But you can continue to hold this name. Its focus on services means she's not worried about impact of tariffs.

DON'T BUY
MFC vs. SLF

MFC is such a complex company, really hard to figure out. If he can't figure it out, he just stays away. If you compare the two right now, SLF is incrementally more profitable and more transparent. Nothing compelling about the price.