Stock price when the opinion was issued
The stock has made a bit of a 'round trip' from its recent highs but considering its strength, market share, financial position and growth, at 23X earnings (with $77B cash) we think it is buyable for investors who can look beyond the current market volatility (which will end, one day).
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META has a dominant market position in social media, its monthly active users exceeds 3 billion, and it is investing in AI. It is a cash flow machine, generating $52B in free cash flow over the past 12 months, it has grown sales by 19% over the past 12 months, and earnings growth is 47% over the past 12 months. It is currently priced at 23.7X forward earnings, which for a company rapidly growing sales and earnings, we feel is fairly cheap, although it can be cyclical depending on enterprise ad budgets.
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He has been buying tech during this dip, in April particularly. We will eventually exit this volatility and find stability and confidence in the market again. Meta and Microsoft are some of his key holdings, and they affirmed their capex guidance--they are spending to make incredible investments over the next three years, because they know AI is the biggest super-cycle every in technology. There is incredible pent-up demand for AI from businesses and consumers. The CEO of MSFT reported that his company processed 50 trillion tokens last month alone, or 3.5 million years of AI conversation.
$1,000 in 5-10 years?An ROE over the long-term should also predict the movement of the stock price. For example, if a company has an ROE of 20%, they are increasing the value of the shareholder equity by 20% a year. 20% compounded over a ten-year period actually leads to a fivefold increase in the equity which, theoretically, should also lead to a fivefold increase in the stock price. If you were to multiply the current stock price of this by 5, that gets you relatively close to $1000. However, he doesn’t think it gets to $1000 over the next 5 years, but if they are able to achieve those ROE’s that they have in the past, it wouldn’t shock him. Thinks their runway for growth is long and very good.