The Panic-Proof Portfolio (Stockchase Research)McDonaldsMCDTOP PICKOct 06, 2020

Half its business is NA, half international. Not a huge amount of growth, perhaps 5-6%. EPS growth of 7-8%. Opens a few new stores a year. More of a landlord, with over 90% franchised. Very high ROIC. 

Only 20x PE today, down from historically high 20s. In his world, it's a staple not discretionary :) Yield is 2.65%.

The chart is breaking down. Trades at only 21x PE, but their last quarter was only okay. Pays a 2.75 dividend. Would buy at 3%.

Has been a stalwart name, except now. Is waiting to hear how they will use AI and robots in the future. When inflation is high, people spend less on fast food. The chart trend is broken. If it recovers, he'd be all over this.

Recent weakness could be explained by excitement of owning momentum stocks, which ripped in April. As well, NA consumer is wrestling with higher prices.

Very consistent company, terrific brand. He prefers QSR at its cheaper multiple and faster growth, or DPZ.

 She owns MCD instead, because MCD owns the real estate of their branches, so they collect rent. Because they are global, MCD enjoys economies of scale. It's defensive. 

It reports today. A steady eddy. It benefits from the market move into value stocks. Strong cash and dividend levels.

 It reports on Wednesday. Trump cutting Brazilian tariffs could ease beef prices and help MCD.

Cattle prices have peak in a generational high, so prices will decline, making MCD a buy.

Run by a good CEO. He sees upside.

It reports Wednesday. The stock is out of synch from the company which is offering new, limited food items.

Ability to source domestically is quite high, so impact of tariffs would be neutral. Extremely well run. Very good at pivoting to whatever the customer wants. Keeps a close eye on it. Likes the business; valuation a bit high for pedestrian, yet predictable, growth.

Was downgraded last Friday and today over fears they won't meet expectations this quarter, including disappointment over MCD's new chicken strips dish, that it won't turn things around. Rather, customer prefer heavily breaded chicken and the find these strips ugly. However, history says it has never paid to downgrade MCD. It's the king, offering good value and is highly well-run. The CEO will figure it out.

He always says buy on dips. A machine, well-run by fine managers.

Well managed. Super-competitive environment. Noted consumer weakness in US and globally. Great job adapting to changing environment over the last 30 years. Growth only about 5-7%. More expensive US mortgages have reduced disposable income.

They report Thursday. Restaurants have struggled because of high prices, but MCD rolled out some cheaper offerings and customers responded, he hopes.