McDonaldsMCDCOMMENTNov 08, 2017Stock price when the opinion was issued
As of Jun 04, 2026. Market Open.
Half its business is NA, half international. Not a huge amount of growth, perhaps 5-6%. EPS growth of 7-8%. Opens a few new stores a year. More of a landlord, with over 90% franchised. Very high ROIC.
Only 20x PE today, down from historically high 20s. In his world, it's a staple not discretionary :) Yield is 2.65%.
Was downgraded last Friday and today over fears they won't meet expectations this quarter, including disappointment over MCD's new chicken strips dish, that it won't turn things around. Rather, customer prefer heavily breaded chicken and the find these strips ugly. However, history says it has never paid to downgrade MCD. It's the king, offering good value and is highly well-run. The CEO will figure it out.
There are so many brands, it is hard to tell which one is going to be able to redefine and re-create themselves. This company has done a phenomenal job. For years they struggled with same-store sales growth. She is cautious on the consumer space, as consumer preferences change so quickly. In food space you have some new brands going more to fresh, and not the hamburgers/fries type of meals. This company has a new CEO with a new plan who has done a number of things to turn the company around. It has a 3% free cash flow yield, and there is not a ton of upside on that multiple at this point. It appears money is going to continue to flow to this company. Probably not a huge performer going forward, but probably not something you will get hurt on either.