McDonaldsMCDTOP PICKJun 05, 2015Stock price when the opinion was issued
As of Jun 05, 2026. Market Open.
Half its business is NA, half international. Not a huge amount of growth, perhaps 5-6%. EPS growth of 7-8%. Opens a few new stores a year. More of a landlord, with over 90% franchised. Very high ROIC.
Only 20x PE today, down from historically high 20s. In his world, it's a staple not discretionary :) Yield is 2.65%.
Was downgraded last Friday and today over fears they won't meet expectations this quarter, including disappointment over MCD's new chicken strips dish, that it won't turn things around. Rather, customer prefer heavily breaded chicken and the find these strips ugly. However, history says it has never paid to downgrade MCD. It's the king, offering good value and is highly well-run. The CEO will figure it out.
This is really about the valuation story, and he is willing to be there for the recovery. There is lots of pessimism priced in. Their sales across the board have come down because they haven’t adapted to consumer preferences. So when you buy this, you are making the bet on are they going to make the changes necessary to adapt to what consumers/restaurant goers want today. He feels the answer is yes. They have done it before. Low volatility and a dividend yield of 3.55%.