Paul Harris, CFAMcDonaldsMCDBUYSep 12, 2012

Restaurant and consumer staples sectors have been under pressure, partly due to "Ozempic effect". Also, low-end consumer feeling pinched by inflation.

Limited success with value meals. That end of the economy is under pressure, unlikely to change in near future. Fuel prices are high, and likely going higher over the winter. It's actually a REIT, and they have a hard time when interest rates rise. Technically, trading below long-term MA.

Renewed traffic is down 1%. MCD is focusing on their app, but sales re flat and international sales were light. With renewed focus on the US, he expect a stronger second half of 2026.

Great business, but it also trades like one. Fallen off along with a lot of the other restaurant stocks. For its business, current price is not bad.

Instead, he owns QSR (and that's more on price, not on quality).

His team initiated a position last year and added to it in this last drawdown. Very little wrong with the business itself. It's struggling because US customers are struggling. Continues to open stores and grow same-store sales. Close to 20x PE, steady Eddie. 

Is near August 2024 lows. Is still operating very well, but inflation is eating into profits. Don't need to rush into this.

The headwinds are pretty severe, The consumer is strapped along with a K shaped economy where 80% are at the lower end and are struggling. They make up the bulk of McDonalds users. There is also a strong move towards better eating habits, health consciousness and weight loss medications.

It's fine, but beef is too expensive. MCD yields 2.6% and has a great reputation and sells at 21x PE. You can buy a tranche now, then more at $275, $270, $265 and $260.

Half its business is NA, half international. Not a huge amount of growth, perhaps 5-6%. EPS growth of 7-8%. Opens a few new stores a year. More of a landlord, with over 90% franchised. Very high ROIC. 

Only 20x PE today, down from historically high 20s. In his world, it's a staple not discretionary :) Yield is 2.65%.

The chart is breaking down. Trades at only 21x PE, but their last quarter was only okay. Pays a 2.75 dividend. Would buy at 3%.

Has been a stalwart name, except now. Is waiting to hear how they will use AI and robots in the future. When inflation is high, people spend less on fast food. The chart trend is broken. If it recovers, he'd be all over this.

Recent weakness could be explained by excitement of owning momentum stocks, which ripped in April. As well, NA consumer is wrestling with higher prices.

Very consistent company, terrific brand. He prefers QSR at its cheaper multiple and faster growth, or DPZ.

 She owns MCD instead, because MCD owns the real estate of their branches, so they collect rent. Because they are global, MCD enjoys economies of scale. It's defensive. 

It reports today. A steady eddy. It benefits from the market move into value stocks. Strong cash and dividend levels.

 It reports on Wednesday. Trump cutting Brazilian tariffs could ease beef prices and help MCD.

Cattle prices have peak in a generational high, so prices will decline, making MCD a buy.