Opinions
Stephanie Link, Chief investment strategist, Hightower
Las Vegas Sands Corp.
LVS-N
BUY
Feb 14, 2025
Stock price when the opinion was issued
You might be interested:
Sold all US properties last year. Now a pure play on the high growth, Asian gaming market and China reopening. Leading market share. Macau is the Las Vegas of China, and gross gaming revenue is growing by triple digits. If you go into a casino enough times, you will lose money, and this means that the house will make money. Expects operating profit to grow by 600% this year. Reports tonight. May regain investment-grade credit rating, which could unlock the door to buybacks or reinstating the dividend. No dividend.
(Analysts’ price target is $65.70)The sector has certainly recovered strongly, and EP in the quarter was 68% better than estimates.
From three years of losses strong earnings are expected this year and next.
We think the outlook is good. Our cold-water on the thesis would be (i) valuation.
At 33X earnings, its well above historical averages in the 21X to 23X range (ii) Debt. At $10B (net) it is still more than 2X the highest annual cash flow of the past 10 years.
Cash flow has been negative for the past three years.
Debt increased by $4B during the pandemic years.
We do expect this to decline with normalized earnings trends, but is a risk if results do not meet growth expectations and/or we see a recession. Overall, we would give it an 'OK' but higher risk rating.
Unlock Premium - Try 5i Free
China is reopening, tourism is jumping, but shares are depressed because the market is de-rating stocks exposed to China. But he expects them to receive its investment-grade credit rating back, reinstate its dividend and share buybacks. He expects a recovery, but doesn't know when. This company is operating well.
LVS sold its Las Vegas assets and is a pure Asian play. As post-COVID travel increases thru China and Singapore, this should see a positive outcome. It trades at 39x earnings and supports a 36% ROE. Its modest dividend is backed by a payout ratio of 25% of cash flow. We recommend setting a stop-loss at $44, looking to achieve $64 — upside potential of 25%. Yield 1.1%
(Analysts’ price target is $64.14)
60% of EBITDA comes from Macau, which is recovering; she's bullish here because LVS has done a ton of renovations that completes this spring. Trades at 11x EBITDA vs. 14x historic. Is -20% the past year.