Opinions Martin Hubbes, CFA
Linamar CorpLNR.TOTOP PICKFeb 15, 2011
Martin Hubbes, CFAStock price when the opinion was issued
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Still a great opportunity. Still maintains his core position. He rebalances positions as weighting drops or increases.
Bruce MurrayAmazing job in its operations. Worst-case scenario is that if CUSMA is not renegotiated in its current form, there will most likely be a level of tariff. A well-run operator such as this will be able to overcome it through efficiencies in production. So he's not that concerned about the geopolitics.
Valuation not that inexpensive anymore. He'd wait for a pullback.
Surprised to see how much it's rallied from April lows. Valuation is ~3x EV/EBITDA, phenomenally cheap. Auto parts plus mobility business. He'd be very concerned in general about owning a Canadian manufacturer, especially with CUSMA up for renegotiation next year. He steers clear of auto stocks, regardless of any upcoming trade clarity.
A core holding. It reports tomorrow. They can make $10-12 per share. They have great technology. They make every Ford transmission. As for Trump tariffs: it takes 5 years to build a car plant + 5 years to train workers. A solid business.
Bruce MurrayIs surprised it's done so well amid tariffs. Will be a survivor. Still trading under book value, with an ROE of 8-9%. Don't own this for yield but for expansion in business. The PE is over 20x, a little high, but expects this to drop a lot.
Michael SprungIf he'd known what Trump was going to do, he wouldn't have chosen this one or BMW a year ago. Industrial stocks are getting more popular right across the world right now. Earnings are there for this name. Building scissor-lift company in China. Also into farm machinery. Trades at 6x PE. Core holding.
Bruce MurrayIt is well managed but never got much respect from the market. He sold because the company was doing well last year but the stock didn't move much. He is not sure about tariff effects. He has moved on to BYD and Uber. BYD has dominance in the electric vehicle market. Its EV can get a 400 kilometre charge in 5 minutes.
It announced it will not be affected by tariffs and is well managed. However he has sold - it has had a hard time getting respect from the market in spite of their successes. Has a dedicated fan base but this is not enough to move the stock.
Classic value stock. Buying back stock. $10 EPS, so it's selling at 4.5x earnings. Everything they make is under USMCA. No one can make what they do. High-end, specialized agricultural products. Agriculture and autos are both down; autos are about to turn up, and agricultural should too. Yield is 2.09%.
(Analysts’ price target is $65.83)Bruce Murray
LNR is in the same boat (same car?) as Magna. It is also very cheap though. It has some European business ($2.8B) which insulates it a bit from the US trade war. The balance sheet is fine and it will get through this crisis, but we would not expect much from it this year.
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Don't yet know how things are going to shake out. Rhetoric is at an all-time high. Short term, it's impacting our economy because the US is our largest trading partner. Reality is that there's a lot of value-added auto manufacturing in both Canada and US; the 2 countries are inextricably linked. Tariffs will be punitive for both Canada and the US.
Hope is not an investment strategy, but we have to hope that rational heads can prevail so that there continues to be a steady flow of goods across our borders.
Would be vulnerable because it's a manufacturer that exports to the US. Global sales footprint, with 15% being sold into the US. Factories in US are ~10-15%, with others in Canada and around the world.
Don't sell in a knee-jerk reaction on the basis of one variable that may or may not come into force. Stock prices already discount everything that's fundamental to the outlook of a company. Instead, think about valuation, whether it's easy to substitute the product, customer loyalty, effect of tariffs on USD, and how long the tariffs will last.
