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Blair Wilson Livingston Int'l Income Fund LIV.UN-T DON'T BUY Oct 01, 2004

Has had problems in the past with a higher Cnd$. Target price is lower than current price.

Blair Wilson

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TOP PICK

The leading customs brokerage between Canada and the US. Stock price has come off in the last couple of days because of a weak Q1 report. Good as a trading stock. He sells when it gets up to $23-$24.

HOLD

Likes it. Business model is excellent. Some of their business segments, they've had a margin squeeze, but that is a short term problem.

HOLD

Largest custom brokerage firm in Canada. 1st quarter was rather disappointing. Recently announced the retirement of their transportation/logistics man and she feels the 2nd quarter may be weak.

BUY

Earnings came out and they were acceptable. Near a 52-week low which is probably due to the general malaise. Good long-term buy.

DON'T BUY

Hammered by the cyclical downturn. As the US economy worsens, theirs worsens. Has been a dramatic falloff of goods both ways. Sees more challenges than upside. Not cheap at 8X EBITDA 2008. Payout ratio of about 96%. Doesn't expect an imminent cut in distributions but with an extended downturn in the US there probably won't be a turnaround anytime soon.

HOLD

Have about 30% market share of custom brokerage and logistics in Canada. Recent quarter was better than expected. Doing quite well on car importation in Canada. During an economic downturn, their volumes and cash flow will suffer.

BUY

Border brokers which is very cyclical. Clear cargoes between Canada and the US. Very sharp decline in activity that sharply reduced revenues. Very well run company. If looking for an economic recovery, he would be a buyer. Could be a takeover target.

COMMENT

One of the largest custom brokers in Canada. Had a distribution cut because of lower trade volumes between Canada and the US. Currently not seeing dramatic increases in trade volumes. Longer term it is a great company. Will recover along with the economy.

WAIT

Custom brokers. Used to short this stock because they were selling a lot of cars from the US. Also border-crossing traffic is down for the year. Now looking at this because it is a monopoly and at some point it will be a great buy. Wouldn't be in a hurry to buy.

BUY

Expecting trade between Canada and other countries to pick up. Have a lot of logistics in the cross-border movement of goods. Selling at an extremely cheap multiple.

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Blair Wilson Livingston Int'l Income Fund LIV.UN-T DON'T BUY Oct 01, 2004

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