Keyera CorpKEY.TOPARTIAL SELLAug 11, 2014Stock price when the opinion was issued
As of Sep 14, 2026. Market Open.
The energy infrastructure space works really well here. There are some knocks against it. Not cheap. Integration risk with Plains assets. Lots of capex. Execution is key, including cost overruns. Moderately tied to commodity prices.
Benefiting from: Western Canada, LNG, condensate demand, Montney production growth. Lots of synergies, increased scale and LNG platform from Plains acquisition. Large backlog of growth projects. Lots of its fee base is not commodity-sensitive. EPS growth of 23%, dividend growth of 4%. Bit more expensive at 18.3x PE for 2028, but really worth it on PEG basis. Yield is 3.57%.
Main problem is the probe into proposed acquisition; intensity of the probe surprised him. Other issue is that it has some market-based exposure -- when oil price drops off, this impacts the stock. No longer a bargain.
If you own no energy infrastructure, worth a look. But if the deal doesn't go through, then what?
It seems that for the last 15 years, everyone has said that natural gas is going to be the play. But it's never really come to fruition.
It's "fine". This name is a bit more specialized to the gas sector. He'd rather look to the peer group -- ENB, PPL, and perhaps TRP. Other names have a longer track record and a better path to capital if they want to expand.
Both really good, likes them both a lot. KEY has better growth now, but trades at a much higher valuation. GEI trades ~14x, with still a very good growth rate.
Don't do stop losses for good companies that are paying you 6-7% to wait. You get stopped out, the stock starts to come back, and then when do you get back in? If it goes down 10-15% (which is very unusual), or even 30%, it doesn't mean the news flow has changed for a good stock.
Huge supply of gas, so price has been depressed. Likes nat gas as a transition energy, and likes the mid-streamers like this one. Transportation, storage, blending, etc. Had gotten offside in marketing, but they have a handle on that now. He'd buy on this dip. Big yield over 5%.
Sees it going further. Likes it. Pays attention to its balance sheet and grows its cashflows. Some are concerned about % of revenues from marketing business. But with the Plains acquisition, marketing exposure is hedged. Very solid management, good growth opportunities. Hold, with no problem buying here.
Announced earnings recently, which completely shocked everybody, and the stock took off. Has an exceptionally strong management team. Really, really good executors. They are an important component of the infrastructure for the natural gas/liquids market. Pays a good dividend. Trading in a pretty rich valuation because of an exceptionally strong management team. Thinks that a lot of the growth prospects are priced into the company, but they do have substantial projects that are coming online starting next year. Feels the company will grow into the valuation, but for the short term, in the next year or 2, your returns could be sub par and limited to mostly dividend type returns. If you own, he would tend to trim a little.